The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host a League Championship Series game at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, for the first time since 2008 when they take on the Cleveland Guardians Monday night for Game 1 of the ALCS.
After finishing the 2026 MLB regular season with the best record in the American League, the Rays faced their AL East rivals, the New York Yankees, in the ALDS and swept them in the best-of-five series. The Guardians, on the other hand, had a tougher path to the ALCS after falling behind 0-2 against their AL Central rivals, the Chicago White Sox, in the ALDS. Cleveland clawed its way back to win three consecutive games, including Saturday’s 2-0 victory in a winner-take-all Game 5.
Left-hander Foster Griffin will look to keep Cleveland’s momentum going in Game 1 Monday night as the midseason trade acquisition has been named the starting pitcher. Griffin had an incredible 2026 season, being named to the first All-Star Game of his career. Although his numbers weren’t quite as good with Cleveland as they were with Washington in the first half of the year, he picked up the win in the Guardians’ 9-3 Game 3 victory over Chicago, striking out seven batters in 2.2 innings of work.
The Rays will counter with All-Star right-hander Drew Rasmussen Monday night, who also had an incredible regular season. Rasmussen didn’t miss a beat in his first playoff start of the 2026 postseason, tossing eight shutout innings against New York in Game 1 of the ALDS, striking out 10 batters and carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning.
Keep reading for Guardians vs. Rays predictions, picks, and more ahead of Monday night’s ALCS Game 1 at Tropicana Field.
Guardians vs. Rays Odds for Game 1
The Rays are listed as home favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for Game 1 as Rasmussen looks to put together another dominant performance on the mound:
- Moneyline: Rays -170, Guardians +140
- Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+130), Guardians +1.5 (-155)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-125), Under 6.5 (+105)
Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Winner Odds
Tampa Bay won the regular season series 5-1 over Cleveland, and the Rays are listed as favorites to win the ALCS at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook as they pursue their first World Series championship in franchise history:
- Rays to Win ALCS: -170
- Guardians to Win ALCS: +140
Guardians vs. Rays Predictions
The stakes don’t get much higher than this as these two teams battle for the American League pennant in a best-of-seven series with a spot in the World Series on the line. Game 1 could wind up being a crucial tone-setter for how this series plays out, so make sure to get involved in the playoff baseball betting action at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, where you can find our Guardians vs. Rays prediction below with supporting insights from the Stats Hub:
Rays vs. Guardians Best Bet: Under 0.5 1st Inning Total Runs (-155)
The Stats Hub notes that there has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last nine games between the Guardians and Rays. Despite the Guardians averaging 5.2 runs per game this postseason, Cleveland has scored in the first inning in only one of its five games, while the Rays have scored a first-inning run in just one of their three games and are averaging roughly 3.3 runs per contest so far during the playoffs.
The No Run First Inning (NRFI) market isn’t only intriguing because of that, but it’s also worth considering based on the starting pitchers for Game 1. Both Foster Griffin and Drew Rasmussen were All-Stars in 2026 and pitched incredibly well all year, and Rasmussen specifically is coming off a playoff start in which he threw eight scoreless innings and nearly recorded a no-hitter.
The Guardians and Rays have plenty of talent to push a run or multiple runs across home plate in the first inning, but the pitchers are just too good to go against to open the game, and there are trends supporting a NRFI in Game 1 Monday night.
- Rays vs. Guardians NRFI Pick for ALCS Game 1: Under 0.5 1st Inning Total Runs (-155)
Top 5 Most-Bet Player Props for CLE-TB
Junior Caminero is batting .300 through the Rays’ first three playoff games with an extra-base hit, making his hits prop for Game 1 Monday night the most-bet player prop as first pitch approaches at Tropicana Field:
- Junior Caminero – Over 0.5 Hits
- Drew Rasmussen – Over 5.5 Strikeouts
- Steven Kwan – Over 0.5 Hits
- Jonathan Aranda – Over 0.5 Hits
- Junior Caminero – Over 0.5 Home Runs
Guardians vs. Rays Betting Splits for Game 1
Here’s how the action is trending at Hard Rock Bet for Game 1 of the ALCS:
- The Rays are attracting the majority of moneyline support with 88.7% of tickets and 93.2% of the dollars.
- Tampa Bay is also the popular choice on the run line with 81.3% of tickets and 93.3% of the dollars.
- The total is the closest market of the three, with the Over accounting for 54.5% of tickets and 50.9% of the dollars.
Guardians vs. Rays Game Info
- đź“Ť Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
- đź“… Date: Monday, Oct. 12
- ⏰ First Pitch: 8:00 PM ET
- đź“şđź’» TV/Streaming: TBS, truTV
- âšľ Probable Pitchers:
- Guardians: Foster Griffin
- Rays: Drew Rasmussen
- 🏆 Stage: ALCS – Game 1
More Ways to Bet
One swing can cash your ticket, but until then, Florida players can keep things interesting with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, only on Hard Rock Bet. It’s another way to stay engaged between plate appearances.
Referenced odds are subject to change.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
