TNF Touchdown Predictions: The 3 Best NFL TD Bets for Thursday Night – Cowboys vs. Bucs

Happy Thursday! We have a fun NFL matchup as the Buccaneers head to “Jerry World” to take on the Cowboys.

Dallas is an eight-point favorite at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, and the 47.5-point total suggests the Cowboys should do plenty of scoring. Tampa Bay’s outlook is less encouraging with rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels under center, but I think the matchup gives the Buccaneers a better chance to find the end zone than these touchdown prices suggest.

I’m looking at one Cowboys receiver with a favorable matchup, plus two Tampa Bay pass catchers whose roles are much more appealing than their recent production.

Let’s get into my favorite touchdown picks for Thursday night at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best Cowboys vs. Bucs Touchdown Props for TNF

• George Pickens +110 Anytime TD
• Cade Otton +475 Anytime TD
• Chris Godwin +475 Anytime TD

All referenced odds are subject to change.

TNF Touchdown Pick: George Pickens (+110)

We’ll start with George Pickens, who is my favorite touchdown bet on the Cowboys’ side at +110.

Pickens is coming off a monster 2025 season, and while his early numbers have not quite matched that standard, the role is still appealing. He owns an 18% target share and a healthy 31% air-yard share.

Those numbers also need a little context. CeeDee Lamb is coming off a ridiculous 21-target game in which he commanded a 48% target share. I am not expecting that kind of concentration every week, and I think Pickens’ share will move closer to Lamb’s as the season progresses.

Dallas has a pretty condensed target tree, and Pickens is the clear 1B in an offense that has been productive dating back to last season. He also ranked near the top of the league in end-zone targets in 2025.

The matchup is where this gets interesting.

Todd Bowles wants to stop the run and force opponents to throw. Tampa Bay has been strong against the run, but the pass defense has not been nearly as convincing.

The Buccaneers rank second to last in quarterback pressure rate, ahead of only Miami. Of the bottom six teams in pressure rate, Tampa Bay blitzes at the highest rate (which is roughly 5% north of the league average). That’s a concerning combination: sending extra defenders without consistently affecting the quarterback.

If Dak Prescott has time to stand in the pocket, Pickens should have opportunities to make a big play.

Tampa Bay also plays plenty of single-high coverage, which can create favorable one-on-one opportunities outside. Pickens runs almost all of his routes from the perimeter, and that alignment fits the coverage looks I expect him to see Thursday.

Normally, I am not automatically drawn to a receiver who lives outside. But Pickens has the size, ball skills, and downfield ability to take advantage of these matchups.

At +110, Pickens gives us an appealing price in an offense expected to put up points.

Thursday TD Prediction: Cade Otton (+425)

Now, we’ll head to the Buccaneers’ side, where Cade Otton stands out at +425.

I understand why Tampa Bay’s touchdown prices are this long. Daniels is a rookie, the Buccaneers are sizable road underdogs, and last week’s passing production was not pretty.

But Dallas hasn’t exactly given us a reason to trust its defense.

According to Fantasy Points’ defensive play-caller data, first-year coordinator Christian Parker ranks last in EPA allowed and third from the bottom in red-zone EPA per play. The Cowboys have struggled overall, and I am not sure Tampa Bay’s prices fully reflect how vulnerable this matchup could be.

Otton’s role is the biggest reason I want to take a shot.

He saw six targets last week, posting a 22% target share and a team-leading 27% air-yard share while playing 95% of the offensive snaps with Daniels. No Tampa Bay pass catcher topped 40 receiving yards, but we are hunting touchdowns here, not a huge yardage total.

Otton has now seen at least six targets in each of his last three games. For comparison, he reached that mark just five times during the entire 2025 season. That suggests his role could be expanding, and the red-zone deployment supports it.

Otton has played 32 of Tampa Bay’s 34 snaps inside the 20-yard line, leading the team. He has also played seven of eight snaps inside the 10 and both snaps inside the 5.

He is on the field for 94% of Tampa Bay’s passing plays, too.

That is elite participation for a player priced at +425. Being on the field doesn’t guarantee a target, but Otton is consistently available in the situations where touchdowns happen–and he’s getting the looks.

He is also doing more than lining up next to the offensive tackle. Otton has run more than 40% of his routes from the slot this season, giving Tampa Bay another way to create favorable matchups.

With Mike Evans gone, the Buccaneers need dependable targets. Daniels leaned on Otton last week, and I think that connection gives him a legitimate pathway to a touchdown against this defense.

At +425, I am willing to take a shot on the role.

TNF TD Prop: Chris Godwin (+350)

Chris Godwin is the other Buccaneers’ pass catcher I want to target. This one started at +475 but has dropped all the way to +350.

Daniels did not show much interest in consistently pushing the ball downfield last week. That is not necessarily a problem for Godwin, who can work underneath, move the chains, and give a young quarterback a reliable option.

Godwin led Tampa Bay with seven targets last week. He and Otton were also the only Buccaneers with first-read rates above 20%.

That matters. These are not just players hoping to pick up a target after the quarterback works through the entire progression. They were the two options Daniels looked to most often at the start of the play.

Godwin’s alignment also gives Tampa Bay flexibility. He has lined up in the slot on 53% of his snaps this season and outside on 46%, allowing the Buccaneers to move him around and find a matchup they like.

Against a Dallas defense that has struggled this badly, there should be opportunities.

I expected the Cowboys to be better defensively after their improvement following last season’s midyear additions, including Quinnen Williams. Instead, the transition to Parker’s scheme has been rough, particularly against the pass.

Maybe that defense improves as the season goes along, but I am not interested in pricing that improvement into Thursday’s matchup before we see it.

Godwin does not need Daniels to throw for 300 yards to cash this bet. He needs a handful of useful targets and one opportunity to finish a drive or create a play after the catch.

Tampa Bay is not expected to score much, and that is giving us some really attractive touchdown prices. At +350, Godwin is another worthwhile long shot against a defense that has not earned much trust.

Good luck with all of your TNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props — we are getting nice numbers for a reason.

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