College Football Week 5 Underdog Picks: Kelly in Vegas’ 3 Best Bets & Parlay

I’ve got three underdogs you should be looking at for college football Week 5.

If all three happen to win outright and you put them together in a little parlay over at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, it pays 54-1.

Michigan State +9.5 at Wisconsin

This one’s already come down from double digits, but I still like it.

Did Wisconsin win that game in Happy Valley, or did Penn State lose it? You guys are welcome to debate each other in the comments section. I’ll take the latter.

Regardless, Luke Fickell gets to save his job for now. The Badgers are coming off their biggest win of the season, 24-20 at Penn State as 9.5-point underdogs.

I don’t want to make light of that because that is a nice outright underdog winner. Those are the teams we’re looking for each and every single week.

But now Wisconsin is headed back home to lay the exact same number it was just given. Something seems a little off here.

Colton Joseph threw three interceptions last week before he even threw a touchdown pass. He now has five on the season.

And here is the truth: You cannot do that against this Michigan State defense. They’ve been holding opponents to 314 passing yards per game. They are 45th best in FBS.

But here’s the thing I really love. Pat Fitzgerald, when he was at Northwestern, was one of my favorite underdog coaches. You know what he did? He upset Wisconsin five times. Now he’s in East Lansing, and I think he might be able to keep that trend alive.

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, the dog is 6-1 against the spread with five outright upsets.

So there’s a fun combination here between what Fitzgerald did at Northwestern and what he should be able to do at Michigan State.

Here’s the best part: The total is sitting at 43, so there’s not going to be a ton of possessions.

A low-possession game means a big dog covers and sometimes steals one.

I know they’re on the road here, but I like Sparty to catch Wisconsin off that win, if you will.

Take Michigan State +9.5, and I like Michigan State +300 on the moneyline as well.

Purdue +10 at Illinois

The double-digit underdog is what you guys have all been waiting for.

It’s a spot that we’ve thrived in all season long. In fact, it’s really been our lone bright spot. If they’ve been over 10 points, they’ve been doing some damage for us on the moneyline.

Tulsa got the outright win in Week 1 for us over Oklahoma State. Iowa State had multiple chances to win that game in Iowa City, but we got the cash with +14.5. West Virginia beat up on Virginia two weeks ago. That was a fun one.

And even though I slept through it in Knoxville last week, Minnesota was an outright underdog winner at Washington.

Man, it has been so fun to have these dogs, but now I can already hear it. You guys are going to groan the moment this team’s name comes out of my mouth: Purdue +10.

I know this is a 1-3 Boilermakers team that nobody wants to bet on, but hear me out.

Who is Illinois to be over a touchdown favorite to another Big Ten team not named Rutgers?

The Illini parted ways with defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck after his first four games, and now they get a really solid quarterback on the other side of the ball in Ryan Browne.

We’re going to see what this new defensive coordinator has up his sleeve for Illinois, but Browne owns this Illinois team.

He’s 48 of 76 for almost 600 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against the Illini. This season, he has 1,135 passing yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. He is not the problem with this Purdue team.

If Purdue’s defense can step up, even in the slightest, I think they can take advantage here and catch an Illini defense on its heels without its coordinator.

I know this is a big ask in a shootout, right? We just talked about low-possession games. This is absolutely going to be a high-possession game. But I think Purdue can cover this number, and I think they have a real shot to win it in Champaign.

Take Purdue +10, and I think Purdue +325 is absolutely worth a look here.

Cincinnati +6.5 at Arizona

Cincinnati is down from over a touchdown to 6.5.

Big 12 After Dark, late-night special, whatever you guys like to call it.

But I want to address something. Last week, the comment section told me it was too late for a bunch of kids from Minnesota in the Central Time Zone to go out west and play an 11 p.m. Eastern game.

Do not believe that BS. Trust me, these kids do not care.

And even with the late kick, we know Scott Satterfield has had this one circled.

Did you guys already forget that last season Cincinnati was 7-1 heading into this matchup with Arizona?

The Wildcats won 30-24, and then UC’s season started to derail. They went on a five-game losing streak, and Satterfield almost lost his job.

This season, Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start, and they looked pretty good last weekend against my Kansas State Wildcats.

Gi’Bran Payne and Cole Tabb combined for 250 rushing yards as Cincinnati won 31-26 as a 6.5-point home underdog.

I know Arizona is still a solid team. Noah Fifita is good. He’s got eleven touchdowns against two interceptions.

The Wildcats, though, are 0-4 against the spread on the season.

I think this is a spot for Cincinnati to avenge their coach’s loss from last year.

Give me Cincinnati +6.5. Sign me up for the Cincinnati +220 at Hard Rock Bet.

College Football Week 5 Underdog Parlay

• Michigan State +300
• Purdue +325
• Cincinnati +220
• 3-Team Parlay Odds: 54-1

Hopefully this week I can stay awake for the actual upset.

Let’s cash that 54-to-1.