Florida takes its unbeaten start on the road Saturday afternoon for a ranked SEC matchup with Missouri at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The No. 8 Gators have quickly become one of the biggest stories in the conference under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall. Florida is 4-0 overall and 2-0 in SEC play, with last week’s 52-28 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss providing the clearest indication yet of how quickly things have changed in Gainesville.
Florida overwhelmed the Rebels on the ground, rushing for 302 yards and six touchdowns. Jadan Baugh accounted for 142 yards and three scores, continuing a huge start to the season that has produced 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns through four games.
Quarterback Aaron Philo has been efficient alongside him, completing more than 72% of his passes while throwing for 917 yards and seven touchdowns. Together, they’ve helped the Gators average 53.5 points and more than 530 yards per game during their perfect start.
No. 25 Missouri enters Saturday looking to rebound after suffering its first loss of the season, a 31-24 defeat at Mississippi State. The Tigers fell behind 14-0, rallied to take a 24-17 lead and had opportunities to tie the game late before leaving Starkville at 3-1.
Saturday’s matchup brings Florida back to a venue that hasn’t been particularly friendly to the Gators. Missouri holds a 7-6 advantage in the all-time series, including a 4-2 record against Florida in Columbia. The Gators are just 1-3 straight up over their last four visits to Memorial Stadium, with their lone victory during that stretch coming in 2019.
Florida vs. Missouri Odds Today
Florida enters Saturday as a moderate road favorite at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:
- Spread: Florida -5.5 (-110) | Missouri +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Florida -220 | Missouri +175
- Total: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)
Referenced odds subject to change.
Florida vs. Missouri Best Bet
Missouri +5.5: Florida has looked like one of the SEC’s biggest early-season risers under Sumrall, but this is a much tougher spot than the one the Gators handled so convincingly last week.
Florida caught Ole Miss immediately after the Rebels’ emotional win over LSU and Lane Kiffin, then took full advantage in a 52-28 blowout. The Gators deserve credit for how dominant they looked, but now they have to carry that performance on the road against a Missouri team looking to respond to its first loss of the season.
This is also the type of situation where Eli Drinkwitz’s teams have thrived. Missouri is 9-4-1 ATS as a home underdog since Drinkwitz took over in 2020. Florida has been on the opposite end of that trend, going just 5-10 ATS as a road favorite over the same span, the worst mark in the SEC.
As stated above, Missouri leads the all-time series 7-6, and Florida is just 1-3 straight up in its last four trips to Columbia, with its last road win over the Tigers coming in 2019.
This Florida team may ultimately prove to be much better equipped for road tests than the previous teams that produced those poor ATS numbers, but laying nearly a touchdown at Memorial Stadium against a ranked Missouri team is challenging to say the least.
With Mizzou’s track record in this spot and the situational swing from last week, I’ll take the points.
- Best Bet: Missouri +5.5
Florida vs. Missouri Betting Splits
Hard Rock Bet players are heavily backing the hometown Gators and the Over ahead of Saturday’s ranked SEC matchup:
- Moneyline: Florida has drawn 95.1% of the bets and 95% of the handle.
- Spread: Florida -5.5 has received 83.4% of all wagers and 90.7% of the dollars.
- Total: The Over has drawn 93% of the tickets and 96.9% of the handle.
Florida vs. Missouri Game Info
- š Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
- š Date: Saturday, October 3
- ā° Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- šŗ TV: ABC
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