College Football Week 4 Picks & Predictions for Four Top 25 SEC Matchups – On Tilt

It’s a massive Week 4 in the SEC, with four Top 25 matchups taking center stage on Saturday.

Texas heads to Knoxville to face Tennessee, Ole Miss visits Florida in the Swamp, Texas A&M travels to LSU and Missouri takes on Mississippi State in Starkville.

Let’s get into our picks and predictions.

Kelly: Tennessee ML vs. Texas

Everybody has an opinion on who the No. 1 team in the country really is, but it’s not Texas.

The Longhorns are only about a four-point favorite walking into Neyland Stadium, and I think the Vols are going to come out on top.

Arch Manning‘s yards per attempt have dropped by an entire yard since last season, and he hasn’t been rushing for touchdowns. Let’s see what he’s really made of when he goes into this environment.

I bet against Tennessee a few weeks ago against Georgia Tech, and it looked good when the Vols were down 10-7. That was about it.

I thought Faizon Brandon might struggle in that road environment, but boy was I wrong. This kid is an absolute stud. He’s got 552 passing yards, six touchdown passes and no interceptions.

I like the Vols to get the outright win.

We don’t need the points.

Ariel: Tennessee +4.5 vs. Texas

I like taking the points with Tennessee at home.

When you look at the numbers, 4.5 feels like too many points. Tennessee is averaging 510 yards and 48 points per game, and I love what Kelly said about Brandon. He’s made no mistakes so far.

For Texas, I’m concerned about what that offense is going to do on the road, especially with Arch Manning and all the attention surrounding him.

Texas is also 0-7 against the spread on the road after three straight home games and 1-7 against the spread before a bye.

Give me Tennessee and the points at home.

Joe: Under 55.5 in Texas vs. Tennessee

I think there’s going to be way more running than anything else in this game.

This is going to be won at the line of scrimmage and in the trenches. DeSean Bishop should be good to go for Tennessee, and with Brandon playing his first SEC game at home, I don’t think the Vols want to put him in a position where he has to throw the ball 35 or 40 times.

I still have questions about Arch putting the football in the wrong spot, too. I think there could be a turnover or two here.

Ultimately, I think whoever rushes for the most yards is going to win this game.

That lands me on the Under in Tennessee-Texas.

Kelly: Florida -3.5 vs. Ole Miss

I love arguing with fans about how loud their stadium is or isn’t, and I’ve been to the Swamp. Usually, I’ll tell you it’s just simply not that loud.

Not this week.

My brother-in-law asked me about getting tickets for this game, and I told him he was out of his mind. That place is going to be bananas with two Top 25 teams meeting in the Swamp.

This is one of the better Florida teams we’ve seen in a long time. I know the Trinidad Chambliss fans are going to argue with me, but I think Florida brings the better quarterback. They’ve got the better running back and a massive home-field advantage.

Aaron Philo is averaging 11.3 yards per attempt. He does have those two pesky interceptions, but he’s been really good otherwise.

I wish I had gotten there a little earlier because three and a half is almost too much for me to take, but I expect Florida to win.

If I’ve got to pick a side, I’m laying it.

Ariel: Florida -3.5 vs. Ole Miss

I saw this open around 1.5, then 2, 2.5 and now 3 or 3.5.

It’s been all Florida money even though the public loves Ole Miss. Everybody is on the Rebels, yet the line keeps moving toward Florida.

I know this is now back-to-back picks where I agree with Kelly, which is very, very rare, but I have no interest in backing Ole Miss here.

The Rebels are coming off an incredibly meaningful game against LSU when everybody was against them and they proved everybody wrong. Now they have to go on the road and do it all over again in the Swamp.

That’s a complete letdown spot to me.

Give me the Florida Gators at -3 or -3.5.

Joe: Over 58.5 in Ole Miss vs. Florida

I cannot imagine sitting at home watching this game Saturday night and sweating out an Under.

You’ve got two offenses that can score against anybody, and we just watched Florida do it on the road against Auburn.

The problem for Ole Miss is the defense. The Rebels are one of the worst tackling teams in the country, and I think they’re going to need to score somewhere around 40 points to win this game.

Florida should be able to move the football both on the ground and through the air.

Kewan Lacy, I believe, is still questionable for Ole Miss, but either way, I’m expecting a wild shootout in the Swamp.

I’ll take the Over at 58.5 or 59.

Kelly: LSU -8.5 vs. Texas A&M

Quite frankly, I don’t think there should be a number next to Texas A&M’s name.

The Aggies just had an almost inexcusable 31-21 loss at home to Kentucky as a 16.5-point favorite. Yes, they outgained Kentucky, but now Terry Bussey is gone for the year.

LSU is coming off its own loss to Ole Miss, and Sam Leavitt only has three touchdowns with five interceptions on the season.

Yet LSU is still laying 8.5 here.

That tells us exactly what we need to know.

I think the LSU team that beat Clemson 51-10 in the opener is probably going to resurface this week.

If I’m playing it, I’m laying it.

Ariel: LSU -8.5 vs. Texas A&M

Nothing about Texas A&M has shown me that this team should be ranked.

The Aggies lost to the only team on their schedule that has really tested them in Kentucky. Their other two games came against Missouri State and Arizona State, and they still gave up 20 points against Arizona State.

LSU’s defense should be able to make life extremely difficult for them.

There are some other trends that go against Lane Kiffin against ranked teams at night, but nothing about A&M has shown me they should be ranked.

I guess you have to lay it with LSU.

Joe: Under 51.5 in Texas A&M vs. LSU

I don’t trust Texas A&M offensively at all.

I think LSU’s defense shows up and shows out. If that defense had shown up in the first half against Ole Miss, we’d be having a totally different conversation about the Tigers right now.

I am worried about the turnovers, which no doubt are going to be coming in this game, but ultimately I don’t trust A&M to get it done offensively in that environment.

And don’t forget, Mike Elko is a defensive guy. A&M has to find a way to slow down Sam Leavitt and company or they’re not going to have a chance.

With the total around 51.5 or 52, I think the Under is the look.

Kelly: Missouri +6.5 at Mississippi State

I’ve been nothing but impressed with Mississippi State.

I was on South Carolina last week, so I had to take that L. Mississippi State played a great second half, and we already saw the Bulldogs go into Minneapolis and beat Minnesota.

Kamario Taylor has 11 touchdown passes, one interception and 178 rushing yards. This kid is an absolute stud.

But now you have to pay a premium for it.

I haven’t been particularly impressed with Missouri. So what? They beat Troy. They went into Lawrence and beat Kansas on a Friday night, and they played a great second half.

But the question is which team actually holds the value here.

Mizzou has won the last two meetings by 22 and 19 points. Now Mississippi State has gone from being an underdog in those matchups to laying close to a touchdown.

I’m not buying it at this number.

I think Mizzou goes into Starkville and keeps Mississippi State on the ropes.

Maybe they get the outright win.

Ariel: Over in Missouri vs. Mississippi State

How about the value being on the Over?

The one thing I trust with both of these teams is the offense.

Mississippi State is averaging 47 points per game, while Missouri has shown it can put points on the board as well.

Mizzou scored 54 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 38 at Kansas and 27 against Troy.

Now Missouri is finally going to face an offense that can really test its defense.

I think points are coming.

Give me the Over.

Joe: Over in Missouri vs. Mississippi State

I’m in agreement with Ariel.

Austin Simmons has been pretty damn good in his own right, completing nearly 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

Missouri is playing pretty well. They can put up points with the best of them.

They didn’t look all that impressive against Troy, but keep in mind they knew this game was coming.

Both teams are sitting at 3-0, and I think points are coming in Starkville.

The Over is the best look for me in this game.