Happy Friday! We’re back with my best MLB home run picks for September 18 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We have one hitter swinging a hot stick against a pitcher with some ugly reverse splits, a lefty with a juicy matchup in Anaheim, and a potential Coors Field power play. Let’s get into my top home run predictions for today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, September 18
- Jo Adell +450 (Athletics at Guardians – Progressive Field – 7:10 p.m. ET)
- Kody Clemens +450 (Twins at Angels – Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)
- Hunter Goodman – IF ACTIVE (Mariners at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Jo Adell
We’ll start in Cleveland, where the Guardians host the Athletics at 7:10 p.m. ET. Mason Barnett takes the ball for the A’s, and the right-hander has shown some serious reverse-split power issues against fellow right-handed hitters.
Barnett has allowed a whopping .307 ISO to righties across 379 pitches this season. That is an enormous number, and it is not just a microscopic-sample blip. He has thrown 40.2 innings this year, and the underlying profile is ugly.
If Barnett qualified, he would rank poorly in plenty of the metrics that matter when we are hunting home runs.
According to Baseball Savant, his barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate allowed, ground-ball rate, and average exit velocity allowed all point in the wrong direction. Right-handed hitters are slugging .560 against him, and he has allowed seven home runs to them.
That sets up nicely for Jo Adell.
Adell has 22 home runs this season, and he has been swinging a hot stick lately. He has gone deep twice over his past four games and enters Friday on a five-game hitting streak. The overall numbers may not leap off the page, but he is trending in the right direction at the perfect time.
Barnett has had no answers for right-handed power this season. Adell has the raw juice to punish a mistake, and I like him to leave the yard in Cleveland.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Kody Clemens
Next, we’ll head to Anaheim, where the Angels host the Twins at 9:38 p.m. ET. Grayson Rodriguez is set to take the ball for Los Angeles, and it has been a rough year for the right-hander.
Rodriguez owns a 6.10 ERA, and while he has flashed at times this summer, the broader profile remains concerning. He ranks in just the fifth percentile in expected ERA and the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant. He is also well below league average in ground-ball rate.
The recent stretch has been rough too. Rodriguez has allowed 11 earned runs over his last three starts, including four home runs.
Left-handed hitters have been particularly dangerous against him. They are slugging .542 against Rodriguez, and he has already allowed nine home runs to lefties this season. He also throws his fastball more than 50% of the time, which gives hitters a predictable pitch mix to attack.
That brings us to Kody Clemens, who is in the middle of a real breakout campaign. He has 26 home runs this year, with 21 coming against right-handed pitching. He is also slugging nearly .500 against righties.
Rodriguez has been getting hit hard, the platoon matchup is right, and Clemens has done most of his damage against this exact handedness. I like him to keep the breakout going with another home run Friday night.
MLB Home Run Bet: Hunter Goodman
Finally, we’ll head to Coors Field, where the Rockies host the Mariners at 8:10 p.m. ET. This is contingent on Hunter Goodman being back in Colorado’s lineup after missing time with a thumb issue, but if he is active, I love the spot.
Bryan Woo is set to start for Seattle, and the right-hander has been a completely different pitcher away from T-Mobile Park.
At home, Woo has been fantastic, posting an 8-1 record and a 2.36 ERA. On the road, however, he has a 5.23 ERA, and his overall contact profile takes a clear turn for the worse.
Now, he gets the most drastic road pitching environment imaginable: Coors Field.
Goodman has had an awesome season. He has 38 home runs overall, including 27 against right-handed pitching, and he owns a .534 slugging percentage in that split.
Woo’s road struggles are well documented, and he does not walk many hitters. That means Goodman should get pitches to hit when Woo is not able to put him away. In Coors Field, a hitter with Goodman’s type of raw power is always a boom-or-bust option worth considering.
If Goodman is in the lineup, I like him to take advantage of the park and a pitcher who has been far less effective outside Seattle.
Current MLB Home Run Leaders (Sept. 18)
Here are the MLB home run leaders as of Thursday night:
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies – 45
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs – 44
- Junior Caminero, Rays – 41
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros – 40
- Matt Olson, Braves – 39
- Hunter Goodman, Rockies – 38
- Ben Rice, Yankees – 38
- Pete Alonso, Orioles – 37
- Rafael Devers, Giants – 37
- Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays – 33
Good luck Friday!
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