NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Predictions and Picks for 9/1/26

Happy September! We’re back with NRFI and YRFI picks for September 1 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We have a pair of MLB games with vulnerable starters in potentially explosive spots, and a plus-money play involving a pitcher who hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in 2026. Let’s dive into my top NRFI picks for Tuesday.

The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, September 1

Some days you look at the board and see early runs – and today is one of those days. We’re rolling out three Yes Run First Inning predictions today for the September 1 slate:

• YRFI: Padres at Reds -130 (Great American Ball Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
• YRFI: Cardinals at Dodgers -125 (Dodger Stadium – 10:10 p.m. ET)
• YRFI: Phillies at Diamondbacks +110 (Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)

YRFI Prediction: Padres at Reds

• THE PICK: Yes Run 1st Inning Padres @ Reds (-130)

We’ll start at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, where the Reds host the Padres at 6:40 p.m. ET. Randy Vasquez takes the ball for San Diego against Nick Lodolo of Cincinnati, and we have two of the more underwhelming starters in baseball right now pitching in one of the best-hitting environments in the sport.

Vasquez owns a 4.02 ERA, but he has been extremely fortunate. His expected ERA sits all the way up at 5.67, and he ranks in just the third percentile in expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant. Vasquez also sits in the 10th percentile in both barrel rate allowed and hard-hit rate allowed.

That is not the kind of profile you want to bring into Great American “Small” Park. Vasquez has been rough in the first inning, too, carrying a 5.14 ERA across 21 opening frames. He has allowed 23 hits and eight walks in those innings, good for a 1.48 WHIP, while opponents are slugging .524.

On the other side, Lodolo has had his own issues. He has dealt with a series of blister flare-ups this season, continuing a problem from last year. He ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average, which puts him in some truly elite bad company.

Right-handed hitters have crushed Lodolo for 13 home runs this season. He has oddly been decent in the first inning, but he is facing a difficult Padres lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hotter than the sun at the top of the order, and San Diego has enough right-handed thump to make Lodolo work.

The -130 price feels warranted with two shaky pitchers in a tiny ballpark that consistently boosts offense.

YRFI Prediction: Cardinals at Dodgers

• THE PICK: Yes Run 1st Inning Cardinals @ Dodgers (-125)

Next, we’ll head to Dodger Stadium as the Dodgers host the Cardinals at 10:10 p.m. ET. Michael McGreevy gets the ball for St. Louis against Los Angeles lefty Eric Lauer, and I like another YRFI at -125.

McGreevy, like Vásquez, has been one of the luckiest starting pitchers in baseball this season. His 3.86 ERA looks perfectly fine on the surface, but his 5.38 expected ERA tells a completely different story. That is a massive gap.

McGreevy ranks in the fourth percentile in expected batting average allowed and the 21st percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He is getting hit very hard, has just a 16% strikeout rate and 9% whiff rate, and is surviving in large part because he has been fortunate.

McGreevy does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground, but it is difficult to trust that when the underlying contact profile is this ugly.

The Dodgers have an all-world lineup at the top of the order, so it is going to be hard for McGreevy to continue getting lucky against them.

Lauer has been subpar this season, too. He has a 15% strikeout rate, allows a double-digit barrel rate, and barely keeps the ball on the ground, ranking in just the fifth percentile in that department. That is troublesome against a pesky Cardinals team that can put the ball in play.

Lauer has also been brutal in the first inning, posting a 6.88 ERA across 17 opening frames. He has allowed 13 earned runs, seven home runs, and 20 hits in those innings. That is not great, and it makes this a pretty clear YRFI spot.

YRFI Pick: Phillies at Diamondbacks

• THE PICK: Yes Run 1st Inning Phillies @ Diamondbacks (+110)

Finally, we’ll go to Chase Field as the Diamondbacks host the Phillies at 9:40 p.m. ET. This is mostly a price play for me. We can grab a YRFI at +110, and I’m willing to take a shot here mostly because of Eduardo Rodriguez.

Rodriguez owns a shiny 2.50 ERA, but his 4.43 expected ERA suggests he may be headed for some regression. He has only an 18% strikeout rate and ranks below league average in barrel rate allowed and ground-ball rate allowed.

E-Rod has also been rough in the first inning this season, allowing 30 hits, 17 earned runs, and seven home runs across 27 opening frames. That comes out to a 5.67 first-inning ERA, and he has had a couple of true blowup outings.

I do like the indoor hitting environment at Chase Field, but there is a reason this number is plus money: Jesus Luzardo has been incredible this season. He has not allowed a single first-inning run across 27 innings. That is a perfect 0.00 ERA in opening frames.

There is a first time for everything, though. Arizona has not been great in first innings all year, but it has started to heat up against left-handed pitching. Over 150+ August at-bats, the Diamondbacks own the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball against southpaws.

The Phillies have ranked inside the top 10 in first-inning offense in August, so there is volatility here. But I wanted one plus-money play on the card, and fading Rodriguez seems like a good spot to me.

Good luck Tuesday!