Happy Tuesday! We’re back with NRFI and YRFI picks for August 18 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We have one NRFI built around two starters who have been excellent in opening frames, plus a pair of YRFI looks with vulnerable arms and offenses trending in the right direction. Let’s dig into my top first inning picks today.
The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, 8/18
- NRFI: Blue Jays at Rays -135 (Tropicana Field – 6:40 p.m. ET)
- YRFI: Yankees at Orioles -110 (Camden Yards – 6:35 p.m. ET)
- YRFI: Angels at Astros -130 (Daikin Park – 8:10 p.m. ET)
NRFI Pick: Blue Jays at Rays
- THE NRFI PICK: No Run 1st Inning (-135)
We’ll start in Florida as the Rays host the Blue Jays at 6:40 p.m. ET. Jose Soriano is set to take the mound for Toronto against Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez, and I’m going with a NRFI at -135.
Soriano was a big splash acquisition for the Blue Jays, and it was a little strange seeing Toronto buy at the deadline, but he has been having a nice season with a 3.16 ERA. His 4.54 expected ERA suggests some regression could be coming, but he still has several things working in his favor.
Soriano is borderline elite at keeping the ball on the ground, while both his chase rate and whiff rate are comfortably above league average. That tells me there could be even more strikeout upside coming his way. The Rays are always a pesky out at the plate, but I like that Soriano can miss bats when he needs to.
He has also been very good in the first inning, allowing only six earned runs across 24 opening frames. Opponents are hitting just .190 against him in the first, which is exactly what we want to see.
On the other side, Martinez has been a pleasant surprise. He simply does not walk hitters, ranking in the 100th percentile in walk rate, and he does a nice job limiting hard contact.
Martinez does not miss a ton of bats, but he owns a solid chase rate, which should help against a very disciplined lineup that doesn’t strike out much.
Martinez has arguably been the best first-inning pitcher in baseball, and the track record is long enough at this point to take seriously. He has surrendered only three earned runs over 23 first innings with absolutely sparkling ratios.
I’m not sure Soriano and Martinez can sustain this exact level of first-inning success forever, but there is no reason to overthink it. Strike while the iron is hot with two guys who have been immaculate in opening frames this season.
YRFI Pick: Yankees at Orioles
- THE YRFI PICK: Yes Run 1st Inning (-110)
Next, we’ll head to Camden Yards as the Orioles host the Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET. I’m taking a YRFI at -110, and these are really good odds for this type of setup.
Star southpaw Carlos Rodon is making his return from a lengthy injured-list absence. He did not even touch 70 pitches in his most recent rehab outing, so there could be some rust or a little bit of a ramp-up period in his first appearance back.
Don’t look now, but the Orioles have started to show some signs of life late in the summer. Baltimore has climbed back into the thick of the AL Wild Card race after a terrible first half of the season, and the lineup has been especially good against left-handed pitching since the beginning of July.
The Orioles rank second in baseball in wRC+ against southpaws since July 1, own the third-highest batting average in that split, and sit second in ISO.
Yes, the strikeouts are still there, but they have enough power to do damage quickly against a fly-ball pitcher like Rodon. Pete Alonso has lived up to his mega contract, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go deep right away.
On the other side, Shane Baz gets the ball for Baltimore, and he has simply profiled as a below-average Major League pitcher this season. His expected ERA sits at 4.20, and he does not miss enough bats, generate enough ground balls, or limit hard contact well enough to stand out in any meaningful way.
The Yankees have a lot of left-handed hitters, and while Baz has not surrendered a ton of home runs, lefties are hitting .293 against him this year. They are getting on base at a very high clip, and that is a problem when you only need one run across six total outs.
Baz has been especially rough early, carrying a 4.88 first-inning ERA. At about as fair a price as you are going to get for a YRFI, this one makes a lot of sense.
YRFI Pick: Angels at Astros
- YRFI Best Bet: Yes Run 1st Inning (-130)
Finally, we’ll go to Houston as the Astros host the Angels at 8:10 p.m. ET. I’m taking a YRFI at -130, and honestly, I’m surprised this one is not juiced a little higher.
Cristian Javier gets the ball at home against George Klassen. The Angels have been terrible against right-handed pitching this season — and, frankly, they have been bad in general — but this is a good get-right spot.
Javier is sporting a 6.68 ERA with a 5.91 expected ERA, and his falloff needs to be studied. Yes, he has dealt with injuries, but this has been ugly. He has never been a ground-ball pitcher, so that is nothing new, but the alarming part is that he is not missing bats anymore.
He is also throwing his four-seam fastball nearly 50% of the time, which makes him extremely predictable. In his current state, Javier is one of the worst starters in baseball, and the Angels should have an opportunity to finally do some damage early.
On the other side, Klassen has made only four Major League appearances, and he has a lot of long-term appeal. Unfortunately for him, the Astros have been a juggernaut against right-handed pitching since July 1.
Houston ranks sixth in wRC+ against righties over that stretch and owns the seventh-best strikeout rate in the split. Add in an MVP candidate like Yordan Alvarez putting together a phenomenal bounce-back season, and this is a brutal spot for an inexperienced arm.
We have one truly struggling starter on one side and an offense that has been humming against right-handed pitching on the other. That is a pretty positive recipe when we are hunting for first-inning runs.
Good luck Tuesday!
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