Happy Tuesday! We’re back with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for August 4 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s dig into three first-inning bets I love on today’s MLB slate.
The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, August 4
- YRFI: Nationals at Phillies -120 (Citizens Bank Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
- NRFI: White Sox at Red Sox -115 (Fenway Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
- NRFI: Rays at Rockies +115 (Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
YRFI Best Bet: Nationals at Phillies
- The PICK: Nationals @ Phillies – YES Run 1st Inning -120
We’ll start at Citizens Bank Park with the Phillies hosting the Nationals at 6:40 p.m. ET, where I’m looking for a YRFI at -120.
Zack Littell is expected to take the mound for Washington, and nobody knows why. He’s been absolutely atrocious this season and hasn’t looked like a Major League pitcher.
Littell owns a 6.13 expected ERA, and according to Baseball Savant, he ranks in just the 4th percentile in strikeout rate and no better than the 15th percentile in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, or barrel rate allowed. He’s already given up a massive 25 home runs this year.
To no surprise, he’s been bad in the first inning because he’s been bad in pretty much every inning. Littell has surrendered 10 earned runs in 14 first innings pitched so far this season, so as long as the Nationals don’t try to dance around things with an opener, this is a great game to look for a YRFI just on the Phillies’ bat side alone.
On the other side, Jesus Luzardo is obviously a fantastic pitcher, but the Nationals have been very pesky against lefties. Since July 1, they lead the league in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against southpaws; they also lead the league in ISO, and they’re drawing a top-five walk rate.
It’s worth keeping an eye on James Wood, who might be day-to-day, but even if he’s not playing, the Nationals have right-handed bats toward the top of the order that can be nightmarish for lefties. They’re just fantastic platoon guys.
I’ll take this price just because it’s Littell against a few power lefties, but hopefully the Nats make this a quick one in the top of the first for us.
NRFI Pick: White Sox at Red Sox
- Today’s MLB Best Bet: White Sox @ Red Sox – NO Run 1st Inning -115
Next, we’ll head to Fenway Park in Boston, where the Red Sox host the White Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET. Davis Martin is set to take the hill for the visiting White Sox against Patrick Sandoval for Boston, and we can get a NRFI at -115.
Backing Sandoval never feels good. I’m not going to sit here and pretend he’s a good pitcher – he’s not. His expected ERA sits at 4.40, per Baseball Savant. That being said, so far this year he has done a good job suppressing hard contact and not allowing barrels, and that’s what we care about in a six-out sample.
The kicker here is that, although the White Sox are very exciting and have a ton of fun left-handed bats, they’ve been absolutely terrible against left-handed pitching over the summer. They rank dead last in wRC+ against lefties since July 1 and have been showing pretty much no power.
Yes, there are some righty mashers in the mix, but we don’t have to worry about them here. Hopefully Sandoval can put together a clean half-frame against a team that has been the worst left-handed-hitting lineup in baseball by a wide margin for over 30 days now.
On the other side, Davis Martin has been very good in the first inning. He’s given up just six earned runs in 21 first innings this year, sporting a WHIP under 1.00, so he’s not handing out free passes.
Martin has allowed only 15 hits in those first frames. I feel pretty good about his ability to navigate the top of Boston’s order without giving up a run, and if we can escape Sandoval’s half, this NRFI makes plenty of sense at -115.
NRFI Pick: Rays at Rockies
- Tuesday MLB PICK: Rays @ Rockies – NO Run 1st Inning +115
We’ll finish up our picks today at Coors Field as the Rockies host the Rays at 8:40 p.m. ET. This is pretty much a price play for me: we can grab a NRFI at +115, which is almost an unprecedented number in this day and age for a no-run first inning.
Newly acquired Freddy Peralta is expected to make his Tampa Bay debut, and it’s going to be weird seeing him in that uniform. He’s had an underwhelming season after being one of the Mets’ big additions, posting a 4.99 ERA with a 3.83 expected ERA.
He’s been a little bit unlucky, and his strikeout stuff has been right around league average. Oftentimes we see players outperform their typical expectations with a change of scenery, so maybe there’s a little extra pep in his step in this one.
We also can’t sit here and pretend the Rockies are a very good baseball team. I think the matchup is pretty good for Peralta. Of course, we’ll have to deal with the elements at Coors Field; it’s tough to pitch there anytime, especially when it’s hot over the summer.
But +115 for a NRFI is just such a strong number that even a small edge feels worth a dabble. Since July 1, Colorado has been slightly below league average in wRC+ against righties.
On the other side, Gabriel Hughes is set to take the bump for Colorado. He owns a 3.33 ERA in 24.1 innings with a very shiny 2.33 expected ERA in his brief cup of coffee.
The 0–3 win-loss record won’t really move mountains, but he’s given up less than a 3% barrel rate and hasn’t been giving up hard contact. He’s not missing many bats, but nobody has been hitting him hard, and he hasn’t given up any home runs in the majors this season.
Hughes hasn’t been perfect in the first inning, and I’m kind of willing to look past that here due to the price and some of his advanced metrics trending in his favor.
This is probably my least favorite of the three plays, but I love the number, and at the end of the day it’s just six total outs of baseball we’re sweating. There’s so much variance in first-inning bets that a +115 NRFI at Coors is still appealing.
Good luck Tuesday! Let’s cash some tickets.
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