NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Predictions & Picks for July 28

Happy Tuesday! We’re back with NRFI and YRFI picks for July 28 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s dig into three first-inning plays I love on today’s MLB slate.

The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, July 28

• YRFI: Yankees at White Sox -110 (Rate Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
• NRFI: Brewers at Giants -125 (Oracle Park – 9:45 p.m. ET)
• YRFI: Rockies at Padres -110 (Petco Park – 9:40 p.m. ET)

YRFI Best Bet: Yankees at White Sox

We’ll start with the White Sox hosting the Yankees at Rate Field at 7:40 p.m. ET, where Gerrit Cole battles lefty Anthony Kay.

I love what the White Sox have going on. They suddenly have a bunch of left-handed hitters at the top and middle of the order with power metrics through the roof, sporting ISO rates north of .200 against right-handed pitching.

While Cole’s strikeout rate ranks in the 73rd percentile, per Baseball Savant, I think he’s been fortunate to have that number. His whiff rate sits in just the 19th percentile and his chase rate in just the 38th, and he’s giving up a ton of barrels and hard contact while not keeping the ball on the ground.

I’m a little worried about Cole for the rest of the season. His numbers might be a touch deceiving, and although his expected ERA sits at 3.50, I just can’t see it being sustainable with this much hard contact – especially once his strikeout rate starts to dip, which it probably will.

Since the beginning of June, the White Sox own the seventh-best wRC+ against right-handed pitching in baseball, which is very encouraging here.

On the other side, Kay has an expected ERA all the way up at 5.30. He doesn’t miss many bats and doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, which is dangerous. Kay is a lefty, so I’m sure we’ll see Paul Goldschmidt near the top of the Yankees order after he’s been tearing the cover off the ball against southpaws, and Ben Rice is basically matchup-proof at this point.

Two lineups with pop, a Cole whose advanced stuff isn’t agreeing with his surface numbers, and an underwhelming arm in Kay. A YRFI at -110 is a really generous price. I’m honestly not sure I understand the juice on the under; it’s probably some name recognition with Cole. I think we might see fireworks right away, and the price is the icing on the cake.

NRFI Pick: Brewers at Giants

Next, we’ll move to the Brewers at Giants at Oracle Park for a NRFI at -125. I like this game to stay scoreless in the first, and yes, a big part of that is Oracle – a tough place to hit, especially at night.

I’m a big Landen Roupp guy. His surface numbers are finally creeping toward where they should be, with a 3.93 ERA and an expected ERA all the way down at 3.35. He also ranks in the 88th percentile or better in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate allowed.

Roupp’s strikeout stuff is about league average, but he doubles down by simply refusing to give up hard contact. I know Milwaukee can be pesky at the plate in terms of not striking out, but Roupp has done an awesome job suppressing loud contact.

On the flip side, Logan Henderson has been a pleasant surprise this year with a 3.05 ERA. The advanced metrics like him too – he owns a 90th-percentile expected ERA, his strikeout rate is through the roof, and he pairs a strong whiff rate with a low walk rate.

I do think some regression is coming, and his very low ground-ball rate is typically a concern, but Oracle Park and its wind help neutralize that with how the ballpark plays. It’s such a tough place to hit that, all things considered, I really like this NRFI.

I’m willing to pay a little juice on something that makes this much sense – and -125 for a good NRFI isn’t bad at all in the grand scheme of things.

YRFI Pick: Rockies at Padres

Now let’s head to the Rockies at Padres at Petco Park for a battle of the Michaels: Michael Lorenzen against Michael King. I’m going with a YRFI at -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

Lorenzen simply isn’t a good pitcher and hasn’t been for quite some time. He might be the worst pitcher to ever throw a no-hitter – what a luck-box game that was. Kudos to him for the rare company, but things weren’t good then and they’re not good now.

He owns a 6.53 ERA with a 5.62 expected ERA, so he’s been a touch unlucky, yet everything is still atrocious. He ranks no better than the 10th percentile in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, average exit velocity allowed, or hard-hit rate.

Lorenzen has given up 16 home runs this year. Lefties are hitting a whopping .348 against him with a 2.06 WHIP, and while things are a bit better against righties, they’re still not good. I like the Padres bats in this spot even though they’ve been underwhelming overall – you can’t ask for a much better matchup than Lorenzen, who’s been a straight-up punching bag.

On the other side, King is a household name who will surely surface in trade buzz. Over the last two seasons, he’s a combined 18-12 with a 2.95 ERA in 2024 and a 3.44 ERA last year, and he’s at 3.24 this season.

But the advanced stuff suggests he might not be that pitcher right now: his 4.57 expected ERA is more than a full run higher and ranks in just the 31st percentile. He limits hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground, but he carries a double-digit walk rate, his strikeout and chase rates are below league average, and he gives up his fair share of barrels.

There’s thump at the top of this Rockies order as long as Hunter Goodman and his 31 home runs are around, so at some point King may be due for regression if he doesn’t start missing more bats. I really like attacking the Lorenzen side here, and I think there are enough “outs” for this one to break our way.

Good luck Tuesday!