Happy Monday! Let’s kick off a new week on the right foot with MLB home run picks for July 20 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s dive into three power bats I love on tonight’s slate.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, July 20
- Kody Clemens +325 (Twins at Guardians – Progressive Field – 6:40 p.m. ET)
- Curtis Mead +350 (Nationals at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
- Riley Greene +220 (Tigers at Cubs – Wrigley Field – 8:05 p.m. ET)
Monday Home Run Best Bet: Kody Clemens +325
We’ll start in Cleveland, where the Twins visit the Guardians at Progressive Field for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Temperatures should be in the low 80s, and Kody Clemens has been a pleasant surprise this season. He has 18 home runs on the year, 14 of them against right-handed pitching, and he’s slugging .506 in that split.
A lot of his advanced numbers back it up too: he ranks in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, the 85th percentile in barrel rate, and the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant — all encouraging marks when you’re hunting power.
Tanner Bibee is set to take the bump for Cleveland. He’s got name recognition, but he’s profiling as an underwhelming starter this year. His ERA sits at 3.90, but his expected ERA is all the way up at 4.67, and he’s giving up an above-average barrel rate and hard-hit rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a slightly below-average clip.
Bibee has surrendered 20 home runs this season, 14 against left-handed hitters. He throws a bunch of fastballs, cutters, and sinkers to lefties, and Clemens has shown a decent amount of pop against right-handed fastballs with a .198 ISO.
The one pitch actually working for Bibee against lefties is his changeup — his best offering — but in a fairly small sample, Clemens has found a lot of success there too, with an ISO north of .200 against changeups this year.
It’s a pretty unique matchup, and all things considered, I think it’s a plus spot for Clemens at +325.
MLB Home Run Pick: Curtis Mead +350
Next, we’ll head to Coors Field, where the Rockies host the Nationals at 8:40 p.m. ET. Kyle Freeland is on the mound, and kudos to him for sticking with Colorado all these years and having the willingness to pitch in these midsummer conditions.
Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-90s with a slight breeze blowing out, and you know that ball travels in the heat and thin Rocky Mountain air. I think we’re in for some fireworks.
Freeland has allowed a .269 ISO to right-handed hitters this season, and his fastball — the pitch he throws most to righties — has been atrocious, yielding an ISO north of .400. That’s an exceptionally bad number.
I love Curtis Mead in this spot. Mead has really broken out for the Nationals as a post-hype sleeper after stints with the Rays and White Sox. Once a highly touted prospect, he’s now in his mid-20s and finding his power stroke.
Mead carries a .261 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, which is perfect against Freeland — and even when the Rockies go to the bullpen, he’ll have a nice matchup either way once you factor in the weather.
His advanced metrics are strong too: he ranks in the 74th percentile in barrel rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging, per Baseball Savant, and he owns a .511 slugging percentage on the year. I really like these +350 odds on Hard Rock Bet.
Home Run Prediction Today: Riley Greene
Finally, we’ll head to Wrigley Field for the Tigers’ visit to the Cubs at 8:05 p.m. ET. It looks like we’ll have winds projected to blow out at least 15 mph with temperatures in the low 80s, and that doesn’t bode well for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon.
Taillon has been a bit of a punching bag this season. He ranks in literally the first percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 14th percentile in ground-ball rate, per Baseball Savant.
It makes sense with his 5.52 expected ERA, which is basically in line with his actual mark — meaning yes, he’s really been this bad. He’s given up 20 home runs this season, 12 against lefties, and he’s allowing a .583 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters.
This matchup is screaming Riley Greene, who’s really heated up over the last month or so compared to the start of the year. He owns a .260 expected ISO against righties with a .192 actual ISO, meaning he’s been a touch unlucky from a power standpoint.
Factor in the wind, Greene rounding into form over the summer, and how bad Taillon has been, and these +220 odds make sense — I still think there’s a little value left on the number.
MLB Home Run Notes for Monday, July 20
A few more things to keep in mind for your home run bets today:
- Fade Springs in the desert. Although I didn’t pull a home run pick from the Diamondbacks vs. Athletics game, it’s worth noting how bad A’s starter Jeffrey Springs has been. He’s given up 26 home runs this year, 20 of them to right-handed hitters. Definitely worth a look at some Diamondbacks righties.
- Cubs bullpen alert. Since we’re on Riley Greene, keep an eye on the Chicago pen. The Cubs have given up a surprising 61 home runs out of the bullpen this season — tied for the third-most in baseball — so the edge stays intact even after Taillon departs.
- Rockies’ pen is leaky too. The Colorado bullpen has surrendered 56 home runs this year, which makes this a great matchup for Mead every time he steps to the plate.
Good luck Monday. Let’s start the week with some winners!
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