NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Predictions & Picks for July 7

Happy Tuesday! We’re back with NRFI predictions for July 7 on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s dig into three first-inning bets I’m on for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

The Best NRFI Bets for Tuesday, July 7

• No Run First Inning: Athletics at Tigers –125 (Comerica Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)

• No Run First Inning: Guardians at Twins –120 (Target Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• No Run First Inning: Braves at Pirates –125 (PNC Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)

NRFI Best Bet: Athletics at Tigers

• NRFI Pick: Athletics @ Tigers NO Run First Inning -125

We’ll start with the Tigers hosting the Athletics at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park, where Tarik Skubal takes the mound against J.T. Ginn. It goes without saying why you’d want to back Skubal in any pitch or inning prop he’s involved in — he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, full stop.

But the real edge here is that the Athletics have been miserable away from home. They typically get the benefit of tiny Sutter Health Park and its good hitting weather for most of the season. But the split is jarring: The A’s rank just 25th in wRC+ on the road this season compared to 3rd at home. That massive discrepancy plays a huge factor.

On the flip side, J.T. Ginn hasn’t been perfect, but he owns a 3.04 ERA and does a lot of things really well even if he profiles more as a league-average arm.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks no lower than the 68th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and ground-ball rate allowed, which is exactly what you want when betting against runs to be scored. At -125 on Hard Rock Bet, this is a really good look for Tuesday.

NRFI Pick: Guardians at Twins

• NRFI Pick: Guardians @ Twins NO Run First Inning -120

Next, we head to Target Field as the Twins host the Guardians at 7:40 p.m. ET, and we can grab a NRFI at -120 on the under.

Outside of Byron Buxton, the Twins have been horrible against left-handed pitching this season — and Buxton might not even be in the lineup after sustaining an injury a couple of days ago against the Yankees.

Southpaw Joey Cantillo takes the mound for Cleveland and could pose some real issues for Minnesota; let’s just hope he handles his business in the first inning.

Since June 1, the Twins own the second-worst wRC+ mark against left-handed pitching in baseball, which makes me feel darn good about this one — especially if Buxton sits.

On the other side is Taj Bradley, who’s had an up-and-down career so far. A lot of his under-the-hood stuff isn’t great, but he’s striking out nearly 27% of hitters, and his ugly first-inning splits are tied to a couple of blow-up outings.

Since June 1, Cleveland has been middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitching in wRC+ and ranks 24th in first-inning runs per game, per Team Rankings.

There’s a bit of volatility here, but at this price, I think the dominoes fall our way. Give me the NRFI.

NRFI Pick: Braves at Pirates

• NRFI Pick: Braves @ Pirates NO Run First Inning -125

Finally, we’ll roll with a NRFI as the Braves visit the Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET, available at -125 on Hard Rock Bet. Paul Skenes is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s had two ugly outings in a row, but it’s a new day, and the advanced metrics still adore him.

Skenes ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected ERA, which is almost a full run lower than his actual mark. The Pirates’ stud also ranks in the 89th percentile of expected batting average allowed, so he’s been a bit unlucky.

He’s still striking out over 30% of hitters, and I’ll take that firepower against anybody in the first inning despite the recent slide. The fact that we’re not paying a ton of juice makes me even happier.

On the flip side, Atlanta is starting youngster Hurston Waldrep, one of the highest-touted prospects in the organization. He’s been decent in two big-league appearances this season — the stuff has always been there in the minors.

The 24-year-old has done a really nice job keeping the ball on the ground with a ground-ball rate over 70% and hasn’t given up much hard contact. Granted, it’s a tiny sample, but I love that it’s showing up this early.

A promising youngster with a big-time ground-ball rate on one side and a top-three MLB arm with overpowering stuff on the other — at -125, you can’t ask for a better price in any wager that involves Skenes.

Good luck Tuesday. Let’s cash some tickets!

All referenced odds are subject to change.

More ways to play

If you’re riding with a NRFI and every pitch matters early, Florida players can keep the excitement going with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, available exclusively on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a fast, fun way to stay in the action while you wait for the first inning to wrap up.