Happy Friday! We’re back with MLB home run picks for June 26 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s close out the week with a bang and hit some of these home run bets!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, June 26
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Junior Caminero +325 (Diamondbacks at Rays – 7:10 p.m. ET)
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Bryan Reynolds +550 (Reds at Pirates – 6:40 p.m. ET)
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Yordan Alvarez +240 (Astros at Tigers – 6:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Junior Caminero
We’ll start with one of the hottest bats in baseball, Junior Caminero, who hit three home runs on Thursday. I know a lot of people don’t like following up a guy who just went deep by backing him to do it again the next day, but that never bothers me.
The matchup couldn’t be better for Caminero. The Diamondbacks were rained out on Thursday, and Zac Gallen is listed as the probable starter for Friday. I hope that holds, because he’s been absolutely awful this season.
Gallen ranks in just the 28th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He does keep the ball on the ground, but here’s what I love about this spot: Caminero has proven to be a very good reverse-split hitter across his young career.
Dating back to 2025, Caminero owns a .260 ISO against right-handed pitching, so give me one of the hottest hitters in baseball this week against a pitcher who’s been atrocious at +325. Gallen is a shell of the pitcher he was a few years ago.
MLB Home Run Pick: Bryan Reynolds
Next, I’m rolling with Bryan Reynolds in the Reds at Pirates game at 6:40 p.m. ET. Reynolds’ odds are +550 on Hard Rock Bet, and these are amazing numbers for a power-hitting switch hitter — and that’s key here against left-hander Andrew Abbott.
Abbott has really regressed since last season, ranking below league average in pretty much everything that matters. He has a 3.83 ERA, but his expected ERA is a full run higher. Abbott ranks around league average in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, and he’s given up nine home runs to right-handed batters this season.
Reynolds has been exceptional from a power standpoint against lefties this year, carrying a .250 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2026. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-to-high 70s, and the Reds’ bullpen has given up its fair share of home runs — 43 as of Thursday evening. Give me Reynolds at better than 5-to-1 against a very vulnerable pitcher.
MLB Home Run Pick: Yordan Alvarez
Next, we’ll look at the Astros at Tigers game at 6:40 p.m. ET, and I’m locked in on Yordan Alvarez anytime home run at +240. Alvarez may be the best hitter in baseball this season, and it’s great to see him swinging a healthy bat again after many wrote him off following his injury woes.
Alvarez has unbelievable numbers against right-handed pitching — a .322 ISO and a .393 expected ISO — and he ranks in the elite percentiles in almost every advanced metric that matters.
Tigers’ starter Keider Montero, meanwhile, has been pretty fortunate from a power perspective against left-handed hitters. His ISO sits at just .149 against lefties, but his expected ISO is all the way up at .202, meaning negative regression should be on the way.
Honestly, I’m not really sure I care what the odds are in this matchup. It’s a well-above-average spot for Alvarez, and with how hot he’s been all year, those are the ones to take advantage of.
MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, June 26
A few more things to keep in mind for your home run bets today:
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Nationals bullpen is a disaster. Washington’s pen continues to be horrendous, which was on full display as they blew another game against the Phillies on Thursday. They’ve given up over 60 home runs this season — by far the worst mark in baseball. So if you like something on the Orioles’ side, that edge stays pretty much intact once the Nats go to the bullpen.
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Arizona’s pen is stingy. The Diamondbacks have given up just 30 home runs this season, so hopefully Caminero can do his damage early while he’s swinging such a hot stick.
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Weather watch. There’s only one game projected to reach the mid-80s on Friday, and that’s at Camden Yards in Baltimore. A spot to shy away from is Oracle Park in San Francisco — yes, there’s wind blowing out, but that ballpark is notorious for suppressing wind, and temperatures are projected to be in the high 50s for a late-June game. You couldn’t pay me to take a home run pick in the Braves vs. Giants matchup.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets!
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