We can’t seem to shake the June blues at the moment.
Tuesday finished 1-2, although it very easily could have been an 0-3 day. The Astros bailed us out with a dramatic comeback win after trailing by two runs in the ninth inning, cashing at plus money and limiting the damage. Unfortunately, the other two plays never really had much of a chance. The Royals exploded for 12 runs against the Rays when we were on the under, and Robbie Ray dominated the Athletics-Giants game, keeping that total under as well.
That’s been the difference between May and June.
In May, it felt like every card ended 2-1. We’d have one loss, one win, and a swing game that seemed to fall our way. This month, those swing games haven’t cooperated, and we’ve been seeing two losses instead of one. That’s baseball betting. Sometimes you’re seeing the board clearly, and sometimes you’re forced to play a little defense while waiting for things to turn back around.
Today we’re attacking four different opportunities across three sports, including the return of the Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
Let’s get to the card.
Brazil -1.5 Goals (+118)
We’ll start with soccer as Brazil takes on Scotland in Miami, Florida.
I’ve been looking for opportunities to fade European teams playing in extreme heat and humidity during this tournament, and this matchup checks every box.
The Scottish supporters have been incredible throughout the tournament. The Tartan Army has created one of the best atmospheres we’ve seen so far, and there will be plenty of Scotland fans making noise in Miami. But the conditions are a completely different challenge.
Brazil hasn’t fully hit its stride yet, but this feels like a breakout spot.
Playing in Miami’s heat and humidity for 90 minutes is difficult for any team, and I think those conditions begin to favor Brazil more and more as the match progresses. The later this game goes, the more I expect Brazil’s speed, skill, and athleticism to take over.
I don’t see Scotland finding the back of the net, and I think Brazil eventually pulls away.
I’m projecting something in the neighborhood of 2-0 or 3-0.
Pick: Brazil -1.5 Goals (+118) (1 unit)
Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (-120)
Boston bounced back with a 5-2 victory yesterday after suffering one of the ugliest losses you’ll ever see.
Two games ago, the Red Sox blew a ninth-inning lead against Colorado by allowing eight consecutive hits, something that had never happened before in the Statcast era. They responded nicely on Tuesday, and now they’ll look to secure a series win.
The handicap starts with Ranger Suarez.
Suarez has been outstanding on the road this season, posting a 2.21 ERA with opponents hitting just .204 against him. The Red Sox have consistently won his starts, taking three of his last four road outings, including victories over Seattle, Kansas City, and Cleveland.
Meanwhile, Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland, and that’s become a situation bettors have been looking to fade.
Freeland enters with a 1-7 record and a 7.36 ERA. While he picked up a win in his most recent outing, the Rockies were routinely getting blown out in his starts throughout May, and many of those losses came by multiple runs.
Boston has the pitching edge, the better lineup, and an opportunity to take the series.
I’ll lay the run and a half.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-120) (1.2 units)
Atlanta Dream -1.5 (-110)
We’re heading to the WNBA for the third play of the day.
Atlanta enters at 12-4 and continues to establish itself as one of the league’s better teams. The Dream have won eight of their last ten games and covered the spread in six of those contests.
Golden State has been competitive throughout its inaugural season, particularly at home, but there’s a noticeable difference when the Valkyries step up in class.
They’ve struggled against the elite teams in the league, going winless against top-tier competition. Atlanta wants to be included in that conversation, and this is the type of game contenders need to win.
The Dream are coming off a victory over Toronto and have covered three of their last four games overall. While laying a short number on the road is never comfortable, I trust Atlanta’s overall talent level and recent form.
Pick: Atlanta Dream -1.5 (-110) (1.1 units)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Twins +1.5 (-110)
Our final play comes from Minnesota, where the Twins host the Dodgers.
Any time you’re betting against Los Angeles, you’re going to feel uncomfortable. But this is a spot where the value appears to be on the home underdog.
The biggest question revolves around Shohei Ohtani.
His last two starts haven’t looked like the dominant version we’ve become accustomed to seeing. He’s allowed seven earned runs over those outings after surrendering just five combined earned runs during the months of April and May. There have also been discussions about knee issues and blister concerns that may be impacting his effectiveness.
Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan, who has quietly been excellent at home.
Ryan owns a sub-3.00 ERA at Target Field, and the Twins have won five of his last six home starts. He’s been particularly sharp during June and continues to give Minnesota a chance to win every time he takes the mound.
We don’t even need the Twins to win outright.
A one-run loss cashes this ticket, and with Joe Ryan pitching at home, that feels like a strong position to be in.
Pick: Twins +1.5 (-110) (1.1 units)
Wednesday’s Betting Card
- Brazil -1.5 (+118) (1 unit)
- Red Sox -1.5 (-120) (1.2 units)
- Atlanta Dream -1.5 (-110) (1.1 units)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Twins +1.5 (-110) (1.1 units)
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