We are back here in the wonderful state of Florida – and well, the change of scenery didn’t really help us because we wound up going 1-2 yesterday.
If you are betting draws in the World Cup, you are making money hand over fist here in the opening round. In fact, today might be another good day – but I’m not betting anything involving soccer.
Belgium and Egypt finished 1-1. We didn’t go over. Iran also drew 2-2. They didn’t win, and they’re lucky to get the draw given the goals they were giving up to New Zealand in that game.
We did get the Phillies on the run line to come through, so we only lost a little over a unit – but we did go down here for the start of the week on a Monday. Not a great run for us at 1-6 over our last seven bets.
Moving on, there’s some big games today. I think it’s time to watch. Argentina and France are both playing today, so you have two of the best teams in the world in action. But the numbers are so skewed that it’s difficult to find any real angle or value on either.
So, we’re going to pass on it. We are, however, going to go with three baseball plays today.
Yankees Moneyline (-145)
Let’s start with the White Sox and the Yankees. We have a pretty good matchup to sink our teeth into.
Gerrit Cole is pitching against a guy I think we need to be paying attention to for the next couple of months: Davis Martin.
Martin has opened the year 9-2 with a 2.14 ERA. At home this year, he has a 1.01 ERA, a 5-0 record, and an opposing batting average of .205. He’s given up just four earned runs in 35.2 innings of work. Now, the difference is Martin and the White Sox are on the road. On the road, he’s not awful: a 3.59 ERA, a 4-2 mark, an opposing batting average of .264, and 17 earned runs in 42.2 innings.
The one thing working against him and the White Sox today is that they have to face Gerrit Cole and the Yankees. The Yankees at home this year are 19-12 straight up. The White Sox are 14-20 on the road.
Cole has come back and been a little inconsistent. The Yankees are 0-2 in games started at home by Gerrit Cole. I think that ends today.
I think the Yankees get a win with Cole on the mound. They’ve won six of seven and have won two straight after taking two games from the Blue Jays.
It’s not a horrible price to take the Yankees here – I like them to get the win.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-145) (1.45 units)
Orioles Moneyline (+125)
Let’s talk about the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles are a little feast or famine. They can be great, but they can also be difficult to trust.
They’re on the road and are just 2-20 away from home. The Mariners are 19-16 at home. But Logan Gilbert is on the mound for Seattle, and his home numbers are interesting.
At home, Gilbert has a 5.60 ERA, a 3-3 record, an opposing batting average of .257, and 28 earned runs allowed in 45 innings. He gave up three earned runs to the Mets, seven to the Padres, and four to the Braves at home. He’s been giving up a lot of runs at home. On the road, he’s been outstanding, with a 1.04 ERA compared to over 5.00 at home.
He’s facing Brandon Young, maybe the most unsung pitcher we haven’t talked enough about. Young is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA. In games started by Brandon Young, the Orioles have won seven straight and nine of ten this season. There’s only one game this year the Orioles failed to win when Young pitched, against Houston on April 30.
Last time out, at home against Seattle, he went seven innings and allowed no earned runs. Now he faces the same Mariners team on the road. With plus money available on Baltimore, I think this is a really good play.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+125)
Nationals Moneyline (-130)
It’s Foster Griffin Day – the Nats pitcher who has become an absolute darling for bettors is back on the mound today against the Royals.
The Nationals have won three games in a row. They’re 15-2 at home. The Royals are 12-23.
Foster Griffin is 7-2 this season with a 3.46 ERA. The team lost his last start, but that wasn’t his fault. It was the game where the Nationals had a 9-1 lead before the bullpen blew it and allowed a walk-off grand slam to the Giants.
We’re going to keep betting this guy.
The Nationals had won four consecutive starts by Griffin before that disaster. In that game, he went six innings and allowed just one earned run. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed one, one, three, and zero earned runs.
We know the Royals offense isn’t that great.
Wacha’s road ERA is 4.43 with a 1-3 record and an opposing batting average of .255. He’s allowed 20 earned runs in 40.2 innings on the road.
Let’s ride this Foster Griffin trend and get behind the big lefty. After what happened in his last start, his teammates owe him one.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-130)
Tuesday’s Betting Card
- Yankees Moneyline (-145)
- Orioles Moneyline (+125)
- Nationals Moneyline (-130)
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