Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for June 5 on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a loaded slate today with some outstanding matchups and great hitting weather across the country. Let’s get into it.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, June 5
-
Seiya Suzuki +300 (Giants at Cubs – Wrigley Field – 2:20 p.m. ET)
-
JJ Bleday +450 (Reds at Cardinals – Busch Stadium – 8:15 p.m. ET)
-
CJ Abrams +575 (Nationals at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)
-
James Wood +300 (Nationals at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bets: CJ Abrams and James Wood
We’ll start at Chase Field in Arizona, where the Washington Nationals are in town to face the Diamondbacks for a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Merrill Kelly takes the bump for Arizona, and Father Time appears to be catching up to the 37-year-old righty.
That doesn’t make me feel so good as a 36-year-old, myself, but I’m not the one having to pitch against all-world athletes. He was a quality pitcher for many years, but 2026 has been rough.
Kelly ranks in just the first percentile in barrel rate, allowing a monster 16% barrel rate to hitters this season, according to Baseball Savant. He also sits in just the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate allowed.
The ball is getting hit extremely hard and in the air against him — it’s been barrels galore. Kelly has surrendered 10 home runs so far in 2026, and seven of them have come against left-handed hitters.
The Nationals have two obvious left-handed targets in this spot. CJ Abrams has been outstanding this season, ranking in the 77th percentile in expected slugging percentage on Baseball Savant. Against right-handed pitching, Abrams has posted a .282 ISO, which is a big power number for a 25-year-old who is finally tapping into the pop many believed was always there.
Kelly leans heavily on his changeup, and Abrams has punished right-handed changeups dating back to the beginning of last season. At +575 on Hard Rock Bet — with 11 home runs in 156 at-bats and a .577 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers — this price is extremely generous in a fantastic hitting environment.
James Wood is the second play here at +300. He has 16 home runs on the season, with 12 of them coming in 158 at-bats against right-handed pitching. The lower odds reflect his track record of power production, but believing in this matchup is fully warranted.
I can’t tell you with complete conviction which of these left-handed hitters is definitely going yard today — if I could, I’d be on a yacht somewhere — but I’d be surprised if at least one of them doesn’t hit the ball really, really hard against Kelly based on all of these numbers.
MLB Home Run Pick: Seiya Suzuki +300
Next, we’ll head to Wrigley Field in Chicago for a 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Cubs host the San Francisco Giants. There are some weather implications worth noting here.
Meteorologist Kevin Roth flagged in his Prop Finder weather forecast that scattered storms could cause problems throughout the day. That said, winds of 13 to 15 mph could be blowing out to dead center, and when that happens, Wrigley can play like a funnel for hitters.
Robbie Ray is on the mound for the Giants, and he’s been giving up oodles of power to right-handed hitters this season. According to AddMoreFunds, he’s allowing a massive .287 expected ISO to right-handed bats. He also ranks in just the 10th percentile in ground-ball rate and the 7th percentile in barrel rate, per Baseball Savant.
Seiya Suzuki is my target at +300. He had a quiet May with just two home runs, but he went deep two games ago, and the underlying numbers suggest more is coming. His expected ISO against left-handed pitching is about 50 percentage points higher than his actual ISO, pointing to positive regression ahead.
Dating back to the start of 2025, Suzuki has posted a healthy .227 ISO against left-handed pitching. With Wrigley potentially playing like a launching pad and Ray on the mound, this is a perfect spot — storms and all.
Home Run Pick: JJ Bleday +450
We’ll head to Busch Stadium in St. Louis for an 8:15 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Cincinnati Reds visit the Cardinals. Kyle Leahy starts for St. Louis and has allowed a .271 expected ISO to left-handed hitters in 2026. He does keep the ball on the ground to some degree, but he’s been getting hit hard, and the warm weather at Busch Stadium only amplifies the environment.
JJ Bleday has been on absolute fire this season with a .379 ISO, and he looks like a fantastic pickup from his multi-year stint with the Athletics. At +450 on Hard Rock Bet, with his power numbers this season and the matchup lined up perfectly against a lefty-vulnerable starter, I don’t mind these odds at all.
Home Run Notes for Friday, June 5
A few more spots worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run bets today:
-
Warm weather is projected at several venues today, with temperatures hitting at least 80 degrees at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, Coors Field in Colorado, and Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Globe Life Field has a retractable roof, but should be north of 80 degrees — my guess is it’s a nice day to leave it partially open.
-
Bullpen alert: Two bullpens have now allowed more than 40 home runs this season, and both are on today’s slate. The Nationals’ bullpen leads MLB with 44 home runs allowed, while the Astros’ bullpen has given up 40. The Reds bullpen checks in at 37 as an honorable mention.
-
Cardinals vs. Reds: Brady Singer has been miserable this season, and lefty bats are the best angle against him, but the Cardinals don’t have many appetizing left-handed options today. That said, the Reds’ bullpen is also a wreck, so a flyer on a right-handed bat like Jordan Walker in great weather against a brutal starting and bullpen combo isn’t the worst idea on the board.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets to start the weekend!
More ways to play
Watching the game is just part of the experience. With Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, available exclusively on Hard Rock Bet, Florida players have another way to stay in the action with quick, exciting gameplay throughout.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ, OH, & VA, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (CO, IL, MI, NJ, TN)
