MLB Home Run Picks Today: HR Predictions for Monday (May 11)

Happy Monday! If you’re hunting home run picks today, you’re in the right spot. Today’s six-game slate doesn’t offer a ton of ideal hitting environments, but there are a couple of matchups on Hard Rock Bet worth attacking for home run bets. Let’s dive into the baseball action and break down the best home run predictions for May 11.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, May 11

• Ben Rice +250 (Yankees at Orioles – 6:35pm ET)

• Evan Carter +700 (Diamondbacks at Rangers – 8:05pm ET)

• Honorable mention: Yankees power lefties (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham)

• Honorable mention: Ranger power lefties (Corey Seager, Joc Pederson)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Ben Rice +250

We’ll start at Camden Yards, where the New York Yankees travel to face the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore sends right-hander Brandon Young to the bump, and he profiles as below average in just about everything. He carried a 6.24 ERA across 57.2 innings last season and sits at 4.35 this year, while ranking below league average in hard-hit rate allowed and ground-ball rate allowed.

The real green light here comes from Young’s splits and pitch usage. He’s throwing his fastball about 50% of the time to left-handed hitters this season, and lefties are posting a .200 ISO and .228 expected ISO against him. Against his fastball, specifically, he’s allowing a staggering .307 expected ISO to lefties.

That matchup screams Ben Rice. He carries an absurd .357 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and in a small sample of 21 plate appearances against fastballs from righties, his ISO is an unsustainable .789.

Rice has been slaughtering the baseball all year, and the breakout that a lot of evaluators pegged for him is clearly coming to fruition.

Oddsmakers agree. At +250, Rice is priced almost as tight as Aaron Judge (+230) on Hard Rock Bet — and Judge typically has the shortest odds on the board most slates aside from Shohei Ohtani. That tells you exactly how the market feels about Rice’s matchup today, and he’s my top home run play for Monday.

MLB Home Run Prediction Today: Evan Carter +700

Now to Globe Life Field, where the Texas Rangers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a game projected in the mid-70s with the roof likely open. It’s shaping up to be one of the better-hitting environments on the slate.

Mike Soroka has an ERA of 4.14, but the underlying metrics suggest more regression is coming. His expected ERA is 5.00, and he ranks in just the 13th percentile in barrel rate allowed at 12.1% according to Baseball Savant.

Soroka is also below league average in ground-ball rate and hard-hit rate allowed. Lefties are slugging .500 against him this year, and while he’s only allowed a .163 ISO to left-handed hitters, his expected ISO against them sits at .250. He’s getting a bit lucky.

Soroka throws his fastball 40% of the time to left-handed hitters, which makes him fairly predictable, and that’s exactly the profile you want to target for a home run play.

Evan Carter is listed at +700 on Hard Rock Bet, which is a hard price to find in a matchup this favorable. He’s homered in two of his last five games and has hit all five of his home runs this season against right-handed pitching.

Carter should probably be closer to 4-to-1 in this spot, which is why he’s my main long-shot play of the day.

Home Run Honorable Mentions

Looking to widen the net? A few more names make sense on the Yankees side against Young’s fastball-heavy approach. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been awful to start the season but is finally showing some signs of life. He posted a .267 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season. You can grab him at north of +400 on Hard Rock Bet.

Trent Grisham is another option. The lefty posted a .251 ISO overall last season and a .240 ISO against right-handed fastballs, according to AddMoreFunds. Both guys make sense, even if their 2026 seasons have been pretty brutal so far.

On the Rangers side, Corey Seager at +350 is the obvious alternate to Carter. His track record against right-handed pitching speaks for itself, and both Seager and Carter carry strong ISOs against right-handed fastballs this season — exactly the pitch mix Soroka should be feeding them.

Home Run Notes for Monday, May 11

A few things worth keeping in mind when making your MLB home run predictions today:

• The Houston Astros’ bullpen continues to be atrocious. Their pen has an ERA north of 6.00 and has allowed an MLB-high 34 home runs this season. The Astros are on today’s slate hosting Seattle, so if you’re targeting live or late-inning spots, that’s the pen to attack.
• The Mariners at Astros game and the Diamondbacks at Rangers are the only two matchups on the slate projected to have temperatures north of 70 degrees at first pitch. Progressive Field for Angels at Guardians is projected between 50 and 55 degrees with just a 7.5-run total, which is not an environment to hunt power. Camden Yards for Yankees at Orioles is projected around 60 degrees, which isn’t perfect but doesn’t change my read on Rice.
• The Dodgers vs. Giants game has a 9.5-run total. Dodgers’ starter Roki Sasaki has been dreadful in 2026 with a 5.70 expected ERA, sitting in just the 12th percentile in barrel rate allowed while ranking well below league average in hard-hit and ground-ball rate. The Giants’ bats have mostly been awful this year, but if you’re looking for a late-night hammer, I’d dig in there.

Good luck on Monday. Let’s start the week right!