NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks + Predictions for May 8

Happy Friday, everyone! You’ve found my NRFI best bets today, and I’ve got you covered with top No Run First Inning picks for Friday, May 8. We’ll also break down a YRFI pick and the best MLB odds on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, so let’s dive into the action!

NRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, May 8

Here are the games I’m targeting for first-inning bets today, including one YRFI pick and two NRFI selections:

• Astros @ Reds – Great American Ball Park – 6:10 p.m. ET

• Nationals @ Marlins – loanDepot Park – 7:10 p.m. ET

• Tigers @ Royals – Kauffman Stadium – 7:40 p.m. ET

YRFI Pick: Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning -120

Let’s start at Great American Ball Park, where the Cincinnati Reds are hosting the Houston Astros. Nick Lodolo will be making his 2026 MLB debut after a blister issue that has kept him out to start the year, and that problem traces back to early last season.

The talent is absolutely there, but you’re still asking a guy to navigate a tough lineup in his first big-league frame of the season, with some natural jitters likely baked in.

Houston makes this even more interesting because the Astros have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, so the ball should be put in play early and often.

If Lodolo’s command or feel is even a touch off in his first outing of the year, the margin for error is tiny.

On the other side, Mike Burrows may have been a bit unlucky overall this season based on his underlying metrics, but the first-time-through-the-order profile is still shaky.

According to Baseball Savant, he sits below league average in both strikeout rate and ground-ball rate, which is not the combination you want in a hitter-friendly park.

The Reds are one of the best first-inning scoring teams in baseball this season, ranking fourth in first-inning runs per game, according to TeamRankings. Great American Ball Park does plenty of work helping fly balls carry, which only adds to the volatility.

The solid -120 YRFI price is a big factor here, and I’ll happily take it.

NRFI Pick: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

• The Pick: No Run First Inning +100

Price is a big part of this play. It’s not often you can grab a NRFI pick at even money. Both offenses have put up strong first-inning numbers so far, but that’s exactly why the number is priced at +100.

Foster Griffin takes the ball for the Nationals with a shiny 2.27 ERA, though his advanced metrics suggest that he’s more of an average arm than a frontline ace. For NRFI purposes, though, what matters is how good he’s been the first time through the order in 2026.

Griffin has tossed 15.1 innings in that split and allowed just one earned run, holding opponents to a .196 batting average while striking out 14 hitters. If that version of Griffin shows up again, we’re in a great position for a clean first inning.

Miami can be an annoying lineup to navigate, but the matchup is manageable for a lefty. The Marlins sit in the bottom third of the league in weighted runs created plus against southpaws this season.

On the other side, Robby Snelling is making his major league debut, and this is where we’re betting on raw talent. He’s one of the better left-handed pitching prospects in baseball, giving up only six earned runs in 29 Triple-A innings this year while striking out 44.

Last season, Snelling posted a 2.51 ERA with 166 strikeouts in 136 innings across two levels. Oddsmakers are clearly pricing in two strong first-inning offenses and a rookie arm, which is how you get to even money on a NRFI bet.

NRFI Pick: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

• The Pick: No Run First Inning

We’ll close things out in Kansas City, where the Royals host the Tigers in a game that sets up as a sneaky NRFI pick despite both lineups being fully capable of doing damage.

The Royals send left-hander Kris Bubic to the mound, and while Detroit does have some dangerous left-handed bats like Riley Greene, it’s still useful to have a southpaw on the bump to help neutralize those platoon splits.

Detroit has done a good job of cashing first-inning bets this season, ranking ninth in first-inning runs per game according to TeamRankings, but this particular NRFI leans into positive regression for Bubic.

Bubic surrendered eight runs the first time through the order in 14.2 innings, but three of those came in a single rough outing. The bigger picture looks better: his expected batting average allowed sits around the low-220s and grades out in the 70th percentile on Baseball Savant, which lines up with how strong he looked last season.

On the other side, Keider Montero is quietly putting together a very nice 2026 campaign. He owns an expected ERA a tick over 3.00 and a strong .226 expected batting average allowed. He’s hardly walking anyone at just over a five percent walk rate, which is exactly what you want for NRFI bets — no cheap baserunners.

Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks in the bottom half of MLB in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching this year, so this isn’t a brutal split for him.

Montero has posted a minuscule ERA across his first-time-through-the-order innings, with opponents hitting well under .200 and yielding a tiny wOBA in that window.

When you combine his early dominance with Bubic’s underlying metrics and talent, laying a modest price for a NRFI play makes sense to me.

Those are my best NRFI picks today. Good luck, and enjoy the games!

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