Happy Friday, everyone! You’ve found my NRFI best bets today, and I’ve got you covered with top No Run First Inning picks for Friday, May 1. We’ll break down the best MLB odds on Hard Rock Bet, so let’s get into the picks!
NRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, May 1
Here are the games I’m targeting for first-inning bets today, including one NRFI pick and two YRFI selections:
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Brewers @ Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET
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Orioles @ Yankees – 7:05 p.m. ET
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Blue Jays @ Twins – 8:10 p.m. ET
NRFI Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (-125)
Sometimes the best value comes from a matchup where there’s one shaky pitcher on the rubber.
Jacob Misiorowski is a flame-throwing stud with a ton of long-term ceiling, and his first-inning numbers back that up. Through six first innings pitched this season, he’s surrendered just two earned runs while striking out 13 batters. Both of those runs came in the first inning of the same game, so he’s only failed once in 2026.
Washington ranks just 27th in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching this season, per FanGraphs. The matchup couldn’t be more favorable for Misiorowski.
Jake Irvin is the shaky pitcher in this one. I can’t sugarcoat it, his numbers are ugly. Irvin ranks in the 36th percentile in xERA per Baseball Savant and carries a high hard-hit rate. That might sound like a reason to walk away, but the Brewers’ lineup gives this one legs.
Over the last two weeks, Milwaukee ranks 24th in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitchers and second-to-last in slugging percentage against righties — only the Red Sox rank lower, per FanGraphs.
The absence of Christian Yelich is being felt in a big way. Brice Turang has rattled off three straight multi-hit games, but he doesn’t carry home run power, so even if he reaches, Irvin can possibly strand him.
One dominant arm early, and a struggling lineup on each side. At -125, I like this NRFI bet today.
YRFI Pick: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-120)
The Yankees are one of the best first-inning scoring teams in baseball this season, and the pitching matchup on the Baltimore side makes this a straightforward YRFI play.
Cade Povich is being called up for what appears to be a spot start, and the track record isn’t encouraging. He posted a 5.21 ERA over 112 innings at the Major League level last season and owns an uninspiring 5.06 ERA in Triple-A this year. His command is fine — he throws strikes — but peppering the zone against New York is the wrong approach.
Aaron Judge sits at the top of that order, and Ben Rice is swinging an unbelievable bat in a true breakout season. The Yankees could make Povich pay early.
Will Warren has been exceptional for New York this season, especially the first time through the order, so Baltimore’s path to a first-inning run is tougher. But this bet might not need the Orioles. That said, any one of their talented hitters can go deep at any moment, and that would be a pure bonus.
At -120 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, this YRFI is the play.
YRFI Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins (-120)
This might be the most lopsided pitching matchup on the board today, and both starters have earned the YRFI target.
Patrick Corbin somehow finds his way onto a Major League roster every season, and he is just slightly below average in pretty much everything. Corbin is striking out just 12% of right-handed hitters this season, and while his ISO allowed sits at .151, his expected ISO is .227, meaning hard contact is eventually coming.
Byron Buxton is on fire right now, and he should lead off for Minnesota. The Twins could send six straight right-handed bats to the plate against a southpaw with no put-away pitch.
Simeon Woods Richardson is no better on the other side. He ranks no higher than the 8th percentile in whiff rate, chase rate, or strikeout rate and carries a 4.82 xERA per Baseball Savant.
SWR is striking out just 7% of righties this season. Toronto should counter with George Springer leading off, Jesus Sanchez posting a .379 expected wOBA against righties, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the three hole.
Minnesota ranks top half of the league in weighted runs created plus against lefties this season, and Toronto is too talented to stay in the bottom third against righties for long. Two hittable pitchers, two capable lineups. At -120, a YRFI is the pick.
Good luck with your NRFI picks today, and have a great weekend!
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