Monday’s MLB slate features some intriguing matchups, and we’re breaking down the best MLB home run picks today for April 13. The weather is starting to cooperate across the country, and a few of these batter vs. pitcher matchups are lining up nicely for the long ball. Let’s check out some home run predictions today worth targeting on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, April 13
- Willson Contreras + 525 (Red Sox @ Twins – 7:40pm ET)
- Pete Alonso +325 (Diamondbacks @ Orioles 6:35pm ET)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Willson Contreras
The Boston Red Sox take on Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins at Target Field, and Contreras is my first home run pick today. Ober’s velocity is a growing concern — per FanGraphs, he’s down to 88.6 mph on his fastball this season, almost two miles per hour less than in 2025.
Some pitchers are still ramping up, but with enough outings under his belt, it’s getting a bit worrisome.
While Ober doesn’t give up barrels at an insane clip, he’s allowed a career 49% fly ball rate — a big number when scouting home run prop bets. Last year, right-handed hitters accumulated a .234 ISO against him.
His two favorite pitches to right-handed hitters are his fastball and changeup, which he threw a combined 50%-plus of the time last season. Dating back to 2023, Contreras’ best ISO numbers have come against exactly those pitches from right-handed pitching — both well north of .200.
Contreras is having a strong year, and his Baseball Savant page backs it up — 90th percentile in barrel rate, 75th percentile in average exit velocity, and 93rd percentile in bat speed.
He’s red hot, with six hits across his last two games, including a home run. You can get Contreras at +525 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Target Field ranked fifth in park factors for hitters last season, though it was closer to average specifically for home runs.
- April 13 Home Run Pick: Willson Contreras
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Pete Alonso
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Camden Yards to face the Baltimore Orioles, and Ryne Nelson takes the mound for Arizona. Nelson had a nice close to 2025 and has been listed as a breakout candidate, but the early returns haven’t been great — he owns a 5.65 xERA with a 13% barrel rate and a hard-hit rate north of 50% so far.
He’s never been a ground-ball pitcher with a career 41% fly-ball rate, but in 2026 that number has ballooned to a massive 54%, per FanGraphs. Balls in the air and hard contact — that’s the recipe for home run predictions today.
Nelson also yielded significant reverse-splits power to right-handed hitters in 2025, giving up an ISO worse than .200. He threw his fastball roughly 60% of the time to righties, with a .203 ISO allowed on that pitch, via AddMoreFunds.
Alonso fits this matchup perfectly. Over the past couple of seasons, Alonso has been one of the most feared hitters in baseball. He posted strong power numbers against both sides of the plate in 2025, but he’s been more than admirable against right-handed pitchers.
Specifically against right-handed fastballs, Alonso produced a massive .336 ISO in a solid sample last season. At +325 on Hard Rock Bet, the price is right for another home run best bet.
Honorable mention: Taylor Ward’s player props are worth a look in this spot at great odds.
- April 13 Home Run Pick: Pete Alonso
MLB Home Run Prediction Notes for Monday
- Weather update: Several parks are expected to be above 70 degrees today — PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, Truist Park in Atlanta, and it’ll be north of 80 at Busch Stadium for Cubs vs. Cardinals. The Diamondbacks-Orioles game at Camden Yards is projected to be in the high 70s with wind potentially blowing out — a strong-hitting environment.
- Tiny Ballpark Alert: The Athletics are back home to host a game at Sutter Health Park, which has historically been a gold mine for predicting home runs due to its small dimensions.
- Bullpen watch — the good: Four of today’s best bullpen ERAs are on the slate — Atlanta, Seattle, Texas, and Miami all sit at 2.81 or better and have combined to allow just 10 home runs between them. Despite some favorable hitting weather in those games, those arms have been lights out.
- Bullpen watch — the bad: On the flip side, Houston and Washington have each allowed 17 bullpen home runs in 2026. Starting pitchers usually throw five to seven innings, which means there are still plenty of outs where bullpen arms are on the mound. Keeping tabs on the bullpen is an underrated avenue to explore when scouting home run prop bets.
- Scaling down units: As always with home run betting, keep your wager sizes small. The long ball is one of the hardest outcomes to predict in baseball, and even great matchups miss more often than they hit. Bet responsibly and enjoy the action.
All referenced odds are subject to change.
