Jason Timpf’s 5 NBA Reactions from the Weekend: Celtics Contenders, Lakers Need Less LeBron?

1. Tatum Makes Celtics Contenders

First big takeaway from the weekend: Jayson Tatum is going to make Boston so much better against the best teams in the league.

It was great to see him back out on the court. Less than 10 months after an Achilles injury, for him to make it back the way that he did is a testament to the type of guy he is.

Boston has had a remarkable season – great metrics, second-best net rating behind OKC, fourth-best record – but they’ve had mixed results against the better teams. Against teams in the Top 10 in point differential, they’ve gone 9-10 with a negative 1.4 point differential.

Tatum coming back isn’t going to lead to some massive statistical improvement, but you can already tell he’s going to help them in several key areas:

• Defensive Rebounding: Boston looks more physically imposing with him out there, especially on the glass.
• Defensive Versatility: They haven’t really used him creatively yet, but long term that will be a bigger part of it.
• Playmaking/Offensive Versatility: There are reads and playmaking sequences that come very naturally to Tatum that have been missing from this offense.

He’s not shooting it super well yet – that’s expected – but he’s going to bring elements to this offense, especially as a playmaker, that haven’t been there this season. He looked better than expected physically, conditioning still has a ways to go, but you can see him trusting his body again.

2. Cleveland’s Big Celtics Problem

The Cavs might have shot the ball uncharacteristically poor against the Celtics and it affected them, but that doesn’t mean they don’t still have a Celtics problem.

There was definitely shooting variance – Boston’s catch-and-shoot numbers were way better. The Cavs got discouraged by misses, and confidence and rhythm can get affected when that piles up.

But the bigger issue is that Boston’s ball handlers look way more comfortable versus Cleveland’s perimeter defenders than Cleveland’s ball handlers look versus Boston’s perimeter defenders. That dynamic is not going away.

Keon Ellis and Dennis Schröder are going to be useful against quick guards in the East, but neither is big or strong enough to disrupt bigger wings/forwards. It felt like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum could pick on whoever they wanted.

Boston’s roster gives them a simple dynamic in basically every lineup: a big forward that can hunt matchups, a guard that can run action with that forward, and a ton of shooting. That compromises the defense and creates open looks.

I’m not going to pretend the Cavs can’t beat Boston – Jared Allen was out, the shooting didn’t go their way – but the fundamental matchup issue isn’t going away. The Celtics look like they match up pretty well with Cleveland.

3. Lakers Pecking Order

No, the Lakers are not better without LeBron, but I do think Austin needs to be the second option on this Lakers team.

Lakers-Knicks was similar to Cavs-Celtics: the Lakers played the better game, but the Knicks shot poorly. The Lakers got a big win against a legit title team after being 1-12 in their last 13 games vs teams with a 60% win percentage or better.

It came down to three things:

• Their stars played well (Austin and Luka)
• Role players hit shots
• They played to their individual defensive ceilings

The “Lakers are better without LeBron” discourse is ridiculous. The team needs talent, and LeBron is part of their best lineups.

But I don’t think the LeBron experience with this iteration has been perfect. At this point, Austin is clearly a better shot creator than 41-year-old LeBron. When Austin is in rhythm, he’s one of the best pick-and-roll players in the league.

LeBron had to absorb more usage when Austin was hurt. Now that Austin is back, LeBron’s on-ball role should be paired back in lineups with Austin and/or Luka. If he doesn’t have a favorable post matchup, he should be screening, spotting up, finishing plays, attacking closeouts – playing off the ball.

Best version: Luka and Austin as the pick-and-roll shot creators, LeBron as the Swiss Army knife off-ball, and then post-ups when LeBron gets a mismatch.

4) Sengun’s Defense

The Rockets have an Alperen Şengün problem.

The Spurs put up 145 points last night, and one of the big things that stood out was how relentlessly they attacked Şengün. He spent time guarding Castle and ended up on guards in switches, and his defense in space wasn’t good.

He was getting out of position, lunging toward the perimeter, giving up drives. He got killed in drop coverage. There were bad transition sequences where he lost his matchup and gave up open threes.

This isn’t just an athletic limitation issue. Compared to most slow-footed bigs, Şengün moves pretty well. The problem is he’s fundamentally weak defensively and prone to mistakes within the scheme. Until he trims the mistakes and improves fundamentally, Houston is going to have a lower defensive ceiling than they’re capable of having.

5) Pistons Slipping

If the Pistons don’t dominate on the margins, they are screwed.

They’ve lost four in a row. Their half-court defense is strong, but their half-court offense is very weak. Cade is developing into a great shot creator, but they still have weaknesses, especially perimeter scoring, and they don’t have a true secondary shot creator who can absorb big usage.

So they have to win on the margins. Over the four-game span, they’re getting outscored in:

• Points off turnovers
• Second-chance points
• Fast-break points

Instead of winning on the margins, they’re getting beat there, and their half-court offense can’t flip it back. In the playoffs, a top East team is going to be able to keep them off the glass and out of transition, and that’s going to be a massive advantage.

If they don’t dominate on the margins for four playoff rounds, they’re simply not a true contender.