Sharp or Square: Week 9 NFL Betting Insights

Halloween week is supposed to be spooky – but for bettors, the real fright has come from how well favorites have been performing. This NFL season has flipped the old rules on their head. Home underdogs aren’t barking. Favorites are cashing at record rates. The pros are confused. The public is gloating.

We’ve spent the week narrowing down our five contest picks, and while we usually ride the dogs together, this slate has forced us to face something uncomfortable: maybe the chalk isn’t so scary after all.

Falcons (+5.5) at Patriots

We start with one of the biggest divides between us and the pros. Everyone sharp seems to love Atlanta, but we’re not convinced. Yes, if Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London both play, the Falcons’ offense becomes balanced again. Yes, the Patriots are inflated by Drake Maye mania and a five-game run against the spread.

But betting on a young quarterback on the road, outdoors, in New England feels like standing in front of a runaway train. Penix has looked lost away from home, and the Patriots’ defensive front can still create chaos. This might be a pure “hold your nose” situation – value on Atlanta, but the timing feels wrong.

Chargers (-8.5) at Titans

We both love this one. It’s rare for us to line up on a near-double-digit favorite, but the matchup screams blowout. Tennessee’s injury list keeps growing, and without Jeffery Simmons, their run defense disappears.

Justin Herbert is finally showing us QB1 energy – confident, visible, comfortable – and Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers quietly trending upward. Harbaugh’s track record as a road favorite as LA’s head coach is elite (10-2 ATS), and the Chargers come in rested. Every sign points toward another east coast, early-start win for this team. We’ll happily take this number under ten.

Vikings (+9) at Lions

The pros are once again on the wrong side of a number. Detroit doesn’t just win, it smashes. When the Lions cover, they cover by double digits. When they don’t, they lose outright.

This matchup tilts perfectly toward Detroit’s identity: a power-running offense against a bottom-ten rush defense. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have turned extended rest into a weapon: the Lions are 15-4 ATS with extra prep. Even if the line feels inflated, Campbell’s teams don’t sleepwalk. The Vikings, now riding JJ McCarthy’s uncertainty, look outclassed. We’re eating the chalk here without hesitation.

Panthers (+13.5) at Packers

This one is harder to stomach. It’s ugly, uncomfortable, and purely about the number. Jordan Love never covers as a big favorite, and Green Bay tends to play down to bad teams. Carolina, for all its flaws, quietly ranks top-10 in early-down success rate allowed. That means opponents rarely rip off big plays early in drives – the kind of rhythm the Packers need.

Bryce Young hasn’t earned anyone’s trust, but the spot favors a bounce-back after last week’s embarrassment with Andy Dalton. If the Panthers can limit possessions, they can keep this within two touchdowns. Not a confident play, but one that fits the math.

Colts (-3) at Steelers

Classic debate. Simon leans Indy; Chad swears by Mike Tomlin as a home dog. Historically, Tomlin covers in this spot more than any coach in the sport. But his defense has regressed badly, and the Colts’ offense can exploit single-high looks that leave tight ends wide open.

At the same time, Pittsburgh’s receiving depth and tight end sets could punish an injured Colts secondary. The pros jumped on the Steelers at +3.5, but we’re split – old trends versus new realities. For now, we’re staying off.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Texans (-1.5) vs Broncos

Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, courtesy of Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Houston is the play. CJ Stroud and this defense aren’t getting enough credit. Everyone talks about his missed throws, but the Texans’ defense is the story: dominant up front, rested after playing just 44 snaps last week, and facing a Broncos team without Patrick Surtain.

Bo Nix’s poise has impressed, but his numbers as a dog are dreadful. Houston’s defensive line should control the game, and with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk returning, the Texans’ offense regains its rhythm. We love the matchup, not just the number.

Jaguars (-2.5) at Raiders

This one divides us again. Trevor Lawrence on the road as a public favorite feels square, but the Raiders’ defense has been a turnstile. Without Maxx Crosby at full strength, there’s no one to pressure Lawrence.

Vegas’ secondary allows the highest completion rate in the league, and any offensive rhythm has vanished with Geno Smith under center. The pros grabbed the Raiders early at +3.5, but as the line fell, Jacksonville became playable. We trust offensive scheming here – the Jaguars should rebound off the bye.

Simon Says: Chiefs (-2) at Bills

When we say “playoff game in November,” this is what we mean. Both teams need it badly, but Kansas City’s balance makes the difference. Patrick Mahomes as a short favorite is still the safest bet in football.

Buffalo’s defense has been decimated, and Josh Allen’s decision-making feels off. His receivers aren’t helping: routes are lazy, separation is nonexistent, and against a top-five Chiefs defense, that’s a recipe for disaster. Kansas City feels undervalued even as a road favorite. It’s our Simon Says pick of the week.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 9

So far, we’re aligned on four: Chargers, Lions, Texans, and Chiefs – all favorites, all terrifying, all justified. The fifth spot will come down to Sunday morning, where we’ll argue, panic, and probably overthink it live on YouTube. Stay tuned.