Cowherd, Middlekauff: The Chiefs Rule on Monday Night

If you’ve followed the NFL long enough, you know that by late October, the league starts to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Sunday’s slate reminded us of a simple truth: the bad teams now know they’re bad. There’s no more illusion, no more false hope — just the grim reality of rosters that can’t protect quarterbacks or keep up with the elite.

And sitting comfortably atop that elite tier is, once again, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City’s Edge Over the Field

When you line up the Chiefs against the rest of the NFL, it’s hard not to see a full touchdown’s worth of separation between them and whoever’s next. Maybe Philadelphia’s roster keeps things competitive — they’re deep, physical, and well-coached — but Kansas City’s combination of Mahomes, Reid, and a disciplined, opportunistic defense continues to be the difference-maker.

This week, the Chiefs enter Monday Night Football as an 11.5-point favorite over Washington, and for good reason. Normally, we shy away from big spreads. The NFL has a way of humbling even the best teams when you get north of a touchdown. But the more you watch this Chiefs group, the more it feels like they’ve rediscovered that second gear — the one that turns comfortable wins into blowouts.

Washington’s Regression to the Mean

Let’s be honest: Washington’s 2024 season was a pleasant surprise. They contended in the NFC East and were one win from the Super Bowl. They played above their weight class, squeezed everything out of that defense, and showed flashes of growth. But 2025 looks like a different story.

And now, they draw Kansas City — a team that doesn’t forgive mistakes. With Marcus Mariota running the show in place of Jayden Daniels, you can practically pencil in a couple of turnovers. That’s not a knock on Mariota; it’s just reality. Against this defense, one misread or a split-second hesitation turns into six points the other way.

No Reason to Overthink It

As much as we’d like to debate, sometimes the pick is obvious. The Chiefs are rolling, Washington’s fading, and the gap between the two might be wider than the line suggests.

So while we’ve both taken our share of favorites this season, this one feels different. It’s not about betting the number — it’s about recognizing greatness when it’s right in front of you.

• Prediction: Kansas City wins comfortably. The machine keeps humming, and the rest of the league keeps chasing.