Every now and then, there’s a bet that annoys me after the fact—not because it lost, but because I didn’t take it and it hit anyway.
That’s exactly what happened last week.
I declined The Offer tied to two Trevor Lawrence props—two touchdown passes and over 224 passing yards—and, of course, it cashed. I didn’t believe in it, didn’t follow my own process, and I paid for it. So this week, I’m doing something different. I’m following the incentives.
Sam Darnold Over 200+ Passing Yards and 2+ Passing TDs
This week’s Offer centers around Sam Darnold, and when you look at the numbers, it’s hard not to like it.
Darnold has real money on the line. He earns $500,000 for reaching 4,000 passing yards and another $500,000 for throwing 28 touchdowns. Right now, he’s sitting at 3,700 yards and 24 touchdown passes. In other words, he’s close enough to go for it—and players absolutely play differently when there are incentives on the line.
The parlay itself is straightforward:
Sam Darnold to throw for 200+ passing yards and 2+ touchdowns, priced at +140, against the Carolina Panthers.
That’s not an outrageous ask. That’s not threading a needle. That’s a motivated quarterback, in a favorable spot, with tangible incentives staring him in the face. And this time, I’m not overthinking it.
I’m taking it.
Nick Wright Exclusive on Hard Rock Bet
Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is posting this one as a Nick Wright Exclusive for NFL week 17, and it’s exactly the kind of offer I want to be on—clear motivation, reasonable thresholds, and plus money. After feeling like a dope for passing last week, I’m not making the same mistake twice.
And since it is Christmas week, I’ll go one step further…
Touchdown Genie: JSN
For Touchdown Genie, I’m adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score, sitting around even money to -105, depending on the number. I feel good about it. This is one of those weeks where the logic lines up with the odds, and when that happens, you don’t talk yourself out of it.
So yes—this week, I’m taking The Offer. I’m following the incentives. And I’m trusting the process.
Merry Christmas to everyone. Enjoy the games, enjoy your families, and we’ll be back on Tuesday.
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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