Skip to main content

I want to circle back to the Chiefs for one reason: the league MVP race is quietly becoming a two-man conversation—Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes—and Hard Rock Bet just built a market that reflects it perfectly.

Hard Rock is offering “Mayfield or Mahomes to win MVP” at -150 versus the field at +105 (odds subject to change, available in Florida). That matters because it’s a true two-way market. I hate one-way “yes only” props; you can’t triangulate a fair price without a corresponding “no.” Here, you can see the book’s full view—there’s some juice, sure, but you’re actually getting a head-to-head price on the race as it stands.

And I’ve got to tell you: getting both Baker and Patrick at only -150 feels like a strong wager.

Full disclosure: I’m already covered

I’m not personally firing on this because I already have the exposure:

I grabbed Baker at 35–1 in the preseason on Hard Rock Bet.

And like an annuity, I bet Mahomes for NFL MVP every year—about once every three years it pays.

Back in our preseason gambling show, I said I thought Tampa could be the NFC’s No. 1 seed. If that happens, Baker is very live. Even I didn’t expect this hot of a start, but the path was there.

baker or mahomes vs field Why the MVP race narrowed so fast

A bunch of preseason darlings have either fallen off or been taken out of the conversation entirely:

AFC MVP candidates

  • Joe Burrow: out—literally.
  • Lamar Jackson: I think he’s out, too. Missing a couple games doesn’t kill you, but starting in a deep hole does; to stay viable he’d need something like a 10–1 run from here.
  • Daniel Jones: playing well, but he’s not winning MVP—especially when many would argue Jonathan Taylor has been that team’s best player.
  • Aaron Rodgers: team has only one loss, but he doesn’t have the numbers.
  • Justin Herbert: trendy pick that cooled off.
  • Josh Allen: still viable, but he’s had hiccups lately.

MVP candidates from the NFC

  • Jalen Hurts: Uphill battle, team record isn’t there
  • Dak Prescott: No chance. He won’t have a better year than Joe Burrow last year, who didn’t have a real shot, and they won’t have enough wins.
  • Jared Goff: I just don’t see it.
  • Jordan Love: Hasn’t had a “wow” season.
  • Matthew Stafford: Viable, but injuries around him (Puka’s status matters) complicate the case.

That leaves the real threats to the Baker/Patrick ticket as Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford.

Why Mahomes has “narrative momentum”

Yes, the Chiefs have taken their lumps, but Patrick always lives near the top of this market. Getting Rashee back helps both the on-field product and gives the narrative arc voters something to latch onto. If Kansas City strings together wins—as they so often do down the stretch—Mahomes will be right there again.

How I’d play it (and how you could fade it)

  • If you think Baker sustains and the Chiefs finish strong, Baker or Mahomes as a -150 favorite makes sense.
  • If you believe Baker cools and KC’s record isn’t special, you can bet the field as a +105 underdog. That’s the beauty of a two-way.

Either way, credit to Hard Rock Bet for posting an either/or that actually lets bettors price the race in real time. It’s available now for Florida bettors under the ‘NFL Specials’ tab.

Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, NJ, OH, TN, VA)

Nick Wright

Nick Wright is a sports television host and analyst, co-host of First Things First on FS1 and host of The Nick Wright Podcast on The Volume. Known for his sharp insight and unapologetic takes, he’s one of sports media’s most distinctive voices.