Welcome in to a Wednesday morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast.
For today, I’ve got another college basketball future, plus an NBA play, an NHL play, and a Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
Let’s get into it and talk some March Madness.
Michigan State to Win the East Region (+720)
It is the time in which we like to back the talented coach that just wins in the month of March. However, I think there is a method to the madness here when it comes to what we might see out of Michigan State.
Look at the East: Duke as the 1 seed, UConn as the 2, Michigan State as the 3, and Kansas as the 4. That is not an easy road for Duke to get to Indianapolis. They’ll beat Siena, but will they beat Ohio State or TCU? Most likely, but St. John’s and Rick Pitino are not going to be a pushover. Kansas, equally, is not going to be easy.
On the bottom part of the bracket, Michigan State is taking on North Dakota State and should win that game. They’ve got Louisville or South Florida in the second round. They should win that game. Then they’ll most likely have UConn – unless UCLA pulls an upset.
If Michigan State wins that game, they will play Duke for the East. And they are +720 to win the East. They will not be +720 to beat Duke in that game. Even in the Sweet 16, we might be able to hedge. With +720 on Michigan State to win the East, not the championship, just the East, I think that’s really good value.
We could hedge twice – on the UConn game and again against Duke. Michigan State could win it and we could cash five units going in with that. This is just too tasty of a bet not to get involved.
Pick: Michigan State to win the East (+720)
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors – Under 216.5
I’m going back to the well again. The Golden State Warriors are playing nobody. They’re absolutely banged up. Boston’s defense should completely shut down Golden State.
One thing that’s really ticking me off – I’ve tried to bet this a couple of times – the team total for the Celtics is not out overnight because they’re waiting on lineup news. They’re also not putting out the first-half team total.
So all I’ve got is side and total, and I think we’re going to keep riding the under. If it keeps losing, fine. But Boston has been trending under, even with their last game going over. Golden State, like I mentioned, is not playing anybody.
Let’s see if they score 100 points. I’m not sure they will.
I’m going to keep playing this until the trend throws me off.
Pick: Celtics vs. Warriors Under 216.5
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche – Over 6 (-120)
To the NHL we go in the hockey game of the night: the Dallas Stars against the Colorado Avalanche.
Colorado is 23-6-4 at home, coming off a shellacking from Pittsburgh. Dallas is 27-6 on the road this year.
We’ve seen 5-4 finals between these two teams already this season – one in Colorado, one in Dallas.
This total opened at 6.5 and has been bet down to 6. When I see that, I tend to jump on the over. There’s a very good push potential here.
Recent games for both teams show a mix of results, but enough offense to justify a look at the over. I think we’re sitting in that 4-2, 5-1 type range.
I’m going to bet the over here.
Pick: Stars vs. Avalanche Over 6 (-120)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Miami (Ohio) +7
We go to tonight’s game in Dayton for my Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Miami (Ohio) +7 vs. SMU.
Everyone is going to be jumping on SMU, saying they’re going to expose Miami of Ohio. Hold your horses.
Miami of Ohio is 19-9 against the spread this year and 11-4 ATS away from home. SMU has struggled on the road: 5-10 straight up.
This is basically a home environment for Miami of Ohio. They will have fans in Dayton.
KenPom has this as a 7-point SMU win, but I think Miami of Ohio has a real chance to win outright. We saw both play-in games last night come down to the wire, and I think this one does too.
Miami has the fifth-most effective offense in college basketball. They’re top-tier in both two-point and three-point shooting. SMU’s defense is not good – below average across multiple key metrics.
SMU has played tougher competition, no doubt. But they’ve lost those games, especially away from home. This feels like a road game again.
I’m going to come in here with the underdog.
Pick: Miami (Ohio) +7 (Sprinkle the moneyline if you want)
Final Card
- Michigan State to win the East Region (+720)
- Celtics vs. Warriors Under 216.5
- Stars vs. Avalanche Over 6 (-120)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Miami (Ohio) +7
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