We’ve got a little something special this week — shoutout to our friends at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook for the NFL odds — because I wanted to give you a quick peek inside my brain before Sunday hits.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 12-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. Twelve. That’s a lot of points — especially in the NFL.
The Setup
It’s not that anyone thinks Kansas City’s going to lose. Let’s make that clear — the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid — that whole machine isn’t going anywhere.
But this feels like one of those classic Chiefs weeks where they play a team they should blow out as a heavy favorite… and then just kind of toy with them. You know the ones — those games where Mahomes looks casual for three quarters, everyone’s yelling “What’s happening?”, and then they win by a field goal.
You can already see it: Chiefs fans sweating through the fourth quarter, the broadcast cutting to Andy Reid chewing his gum, and then Kansas City escaping with a win.
The Logic
It’s not about doubting Mahomes or Andy Reid, but they’ve got two big ones coming up — the Commanders and the Bills. And Andy’s too smart to empty the playbook against a struggling Raiders team in mid-October.
This is a “keep it vanilla, get out healthy” kind of Sunday. Reid’s going to keep the cards close to his chest, bring Rashee Rice along with a few targets, but he’s not putting anything new on tape.
It’s easy to see them easing off the gas, managing reps, and letting his defense handle business while the offense just… coasts.
The Call
So here’s the pick:
- Raiders +12
Chiefs moneyline obviously — they still win, but not by 12 points.
This one’s more about game flow than fandom. The underdog will hang around, the Chiefs will make it dramatic, and we’ll all get the “Oh my god, they almost blew it” game that Kansas City seems to give us once or twice a season.
The Last Word
Sometimes betting smart means betting against your favorite team. This week, that means fading the Chiefs (at least against the spread).
They’ll win — they always do — but I’ll take the points, the cover, and a little validation when Andy Reid inevitably plays it close.
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