Rory & Mal’s NCAA Tourney Picks & Predictions for St. John’s vs Duke, MSU vs UConn

We’re knee-deep in college basketball – bracket season – and yeah, it’s getting real.

Let’s start with the honesty: the brackets? Not great. Sitting around 66%, which sounds respectable until you realize it’s not winning you anything. Meanwhile, the spreads? That’s where things are actually making sense. Hard Rock Bet has been a lot kinder to us than our brackets have.

Now let’s talk about the game.

Duke vs. St. John’s

• The Pick: St. John’s +6.5

Here’s where it gets messy. Because the heart and the bracket are not aligned.

On paper—on the bracket—we’ve got Duke moving on. That was the “logical” pick. But watching how this is playing out? That line feels off. St. John’s getting +6.5? That’s too much.

We think Duke probably wins. But by seven? That’s where it stops making sense.

St. John’s is playing too well right now, too locked in, too dangerous defensively. This feels like a one-possession game, maybe two at most. The kind of game where late fouls make it look wider than it actually was—but even then, six and a half feels like a gift.

So yeah, bracket says Duke. Betting slip says St. John’s +6.5. Easily.

That’s the difference between logic and instinct—and right now, we’re trusting the instinct.

UConn vs. Michigan State

• The Pick: UConn -1.5

UConn laying 1.5 as the betting favorite is tricky. This feels like the right side, but also feels like the exact kind of game that ends on a buzzer beater and burns you. That’s been the theme all tournament—chaos, last shots, guys who’ve done nothing all night hitting the only shot that matters.

Still, we’re leaning UConn. It’s a risk, but that’s the tournament.