Another week down, and now we’ve got a big one under the lights on Monday night: Chiefs vs. Commanders. Let’s talk about it.
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
Kansas City comes into this game as 11.5-point favorites, which, I’ll be honest, is a massive number in the NFL. Anytime you start talking double digits, you’re in dangerous territory. That’s tough to cover, no matter who you’re playing.
Now, I get it, Jayden Daniels isn’t playing. That changes the whole dynamic for Washington. They’re rolling out Marcus Mariota, and when you lose your young QB who’s been showing promise, that’s a blow. Vegas knows it, too. That’s why this line ballooned like it did.
But here’s the thing: 11.5 is still huge. You’ve got to basically dominate from start to finish to cash that ticket. If the Commanders are down Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, which is still up in the air, then yeah, I could see Patrick Mahomes and those boys running away with it. But if those guys suit up, that’s too much juice for me.
You just don’t see teams cover numbers like that very often. The Chiefs are the better squad – that’s not a debate – but “better” doesn’t always mean “cover.”
The Pick: Chiefs win the game, but that 11.5? I’m not touching it.
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