Nick Wright’s Week 7 Picks: Fading Shiny QBs, Backing Ugly Ones

Last week was about trusting great quarterbacks. This week, I’m doing the opposite: leaning into grimy value with some of the NFL’s worst quarterback situations.

1) Titans +7 at Patriots

I swore I wouldn’t bet Tennessee again as long as Brian Callahan was the head coach. He’s out. Seven is too many. New England’s riding a couple of strong wins and feeling itself at the top of the division; that’s exactly when a young, unproven team can slip. It’s also the Pats’ third straight road game, which matters against the number.

Narrative note: with the Titans having fired him, Mike Vrabel (now on the other sideline) isn’t hunting a statement blowout—he’s coaching to win. I like the backdoor and outright upset potential here. I’d love +7.5; I’ll take +7.

2) Jets +1.5 vs. Panthers

This is a number play. The game opened Jets -1.5 and flipped through zero to Jets +1.5. My decades of betting experience say that kind of late chase often dies by a single point. I can’t explain it—call it a market tell—but I expect a one-point game where folks who laid Carolina -1.5 (instead of grabbing +1.5 earlier) get clipped.

Also: if you’re a Jets fan, when are you winning if not here? I’ll take the +1.5 and live with the noise.

3) Giants +7 at Broncos

This is extra rest vs. travel. The Giants played Thursday at home; Denver played Sunday in London and looked rough on offense. New York’s feeling okay about itself, and this is a spot where they can win outright.

Truth serum: Brian Daboll might trust his quarterback more than Sean Payton trusts his. The Giants’ kid won’t be scared of the defense—maybe mistakes, maybe big plays—but seven is too many. Give me Big Blue +7.

4) Falcons +2 at 49ers (SNF)

The Niners haven’t really lived without both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner; that’s a fundamental identity shift, and I don’t think the market has fully priced what Bijan Robinson can do with Warner out. I don’t care if Brock Purdy is back—Atlanta can win this outright. I expect Drake London to pop, Bijan to pile up yards, and that Falcons secondary to challenge a quarterback in his first game back after time off.

The wrong team favored. Falcons +2.

5) Seahawks -3 vs. Texans

My one favorite. Seattle’s underrated at 4-2: a toss-up with the Niners in Week 1 and a track-meet loss to Baker, 38–35. The D-line has been good and Sam Darnold has been excellent. Houston’s off a bye, sure—but I don’t trust that offense yet. I’d prefer -2.5, but I’ll lay the 3.

The Week 7 picks

• Titans +7
• Jets +1.5
• Giants +7
• Falcons +2
• Seahawks -3

Yes, I’m “betting on bad quarterbacks.” If it were as simple as “always play the elite QB,” everyone would be rich. We stabilized with that approach last week; this is the buy-low, hold-your-nose slate.

Damonza’s 3-Team, 8-Point Teaser (+100) — My Grade: A

Here’s Damonza’s 3-team teaser for week 7:

• Titans up to +15
• Colts up to +10
• Giants up to +15

This isn’t just about “key numbers,” though you do run through them—it’s that I already like Tennessee and the Giants at +7, and I think Indy is live to win outright.

TD Genie? Sitting It Out

I’m passing on a touchdown prop this week. I flirted with Rashee Rice, but the value/price didn’t sing. Sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Thanks to our partners and to you for riding along. We’ll tally it up next week—hopefully after a weekend where the ugly dogs bark.