Nick Wright’s Week 6 Picks: Betting on Quarterbacks I Trust

This week, I’m doing something I’ve never done before. It’s time to shake the snow globe and get the mojo back. I’m breaking all my usual gambling rules and going all-in on a new philosophy — only bet on quarterbacks I trust.

I’m taking five picks this week, but the theme is simple: trust. Trust in experience, in leadership, and in guys who have shown they can deliver when it matters. Let’s get into NFL Week 6.

1. Rams (-7.5) at Ravens

I was this close to taking Pittsburgh -5.5 against Cleveland. But then I looked at that Cleveland defensive line, and I couldn’t do it. I don’t want to lay more than a field goal with Aaron Rodgers in that spot.

So I pivoted — executive decision. Give me Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Yes, they’re traveling west to east, and yes, that’s usually a red flag. But the Rams are coming off extra rest, they need this win, and the Ravens are a mess without Lamar.

Stafford’s battle-tested, and the Rams are desperate. I trust him to handle business. Rams -7.5 is the play.

2. Cowboys (-3) at Panthers

Another road favorite, another break from my usual rules. But this is a slump-buster game, and I’m betting on Dak Prescott to get it done.

Dak has been awesome lately. The Panthers, on the other hand, are completely inept for entire quarters — sometimes entire halves. Bryce Young might be on his last start before the team makes a change.

The stat that seals it: Dak is 33-18-2 against the spread versus teams under .500 in his career. Bad teams don’t sneak up on him. Dallas rolls. Cowboys -3.

3. Buccaneers (-3) vs. 49ers

This one’s for the Bake Show. I don’t think Mac Jones is going to replicate last week’s performance, and I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary can handle Tampa’s receivers.

Sure, the Bucs have offensive line injuries — but I don’t think the Niners’ defensive personnel can really exploit it. Ideally, I’d love this line at 2.5, but even at 3, I’ll lay the points.

Baker Mayfield loves the big moments, loves the game-winning field goal scenario. I’m trusting him here. Buccaneers -3.

4. Chiefs (-2) vs. Lions

Now we’re getting to the one that raised eyebrows — even Dan Le Batard’s.

When I told him I thought Kansas City would beat Detroit, he was shocked. Next thing I knew, we had a $5,000 straight-up bet on it. That’s how confident I am.

Here’s the thing: Detroit’s top two corners are out, and while everyone’s piling on the Lions hype train, Kansas City is the more desperate team after that ugly loss to Jacksonville.

Everyone’s going to be chasing losses Sunday night by betting Detroit. Not me. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs -2.

5. Bears (+4) at Commanders

This is it for Caleb Williams — the most important game of his career so far. Chicago’s coming off a bye, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has had two full weeks to prepare.

Do I think they win outright? Possibly. But at the very least, I think the underdog keeps it close. I’m taking Bears +4, trusting Caleb to rise to the moment.

The Philosophy: Stop Overthinking

This week, I’m betting on quarterbacks I believe in — Stafford, Dak, Baker, Mahomes, and Caleb.

Sure, I’m probably on the square side of some of these plays — Rams, Cowboys, maybe even Tampa — but I don’t care. Sometimes you have to stop overthinking and trust the guys who can actually make plays.

This is how we go 5-0.