Nick Wright’s Week 14 Picks: Seahawks, Eagles Roll & Jaguars Upset

It’s a milestone week – Episode 400 – and the entire crew is back together. Damonza has returned from paternity leave, the teaser has literally not lost since his daughter arrived, and I am both emotionally damaged and optimistic about finishing the year profitable. Let’s break down the stay-aways, the picks, the teaser, and the special Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook 400-themed markets.

🚫 Games I’m Staying Away From

Sometimes the smartest bet is the one you don’t make – and I had a lot of those this week.

• Dolphins at Jets:
  • Miami needed a two-point conversion pick-two to escape the Saints.
  • Tua in cold weather? Not ideal.
  • Jets admittedly tempted me… until they didn’t.
• Titans at Browns:
  • Cam Ward? Seven TD passes all year.
  • Myles Garrett might break the sack record in this matchup.
  • But… laying 3.5 with Shedeur Sanders? Nope.
• Saints at Buccaneers:
  • Saints pass defense is quietly solid.
  • Bucs don’t need margin, just a win.
  • Trusting Tyler Shough on the road isn’t happening.
• Bengals at Bills:
  • I think anything could happen: Bills rout, Bengals upset, total randomness.
  • Two of the worst run defenses in the league.
  • Buffalo’s run game is elite; Cincy’s is not.
• Broncos at Raiders:
  • Denver only plays close games.
  • Raiders’ OL is so awful that Denver’s defense could feast.
  • Grabbing points feels dangerous when Vegas might not score.
• Rams at Cardinals:
  • I lean Rams here but refuse to lay 8 points in an NFC West game.
• Bears at Packers:
  • The “smart side” is Chicago.
  • Both teams are fresh off their best games of the season.
  • At 7.5 I’d take the Bears, but 6.5 ruins it.
• Texans at Chiefs:
  • I refuse to lay 3.5 with the Chiefs until I know the OL situation.
  • The aura of invincibility has been pierced.
  • Emotional pass on this one.

🏈 Nick Wright’s Hard Rock Bet Picks for Week 14

All lines from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, as always.

1️⃣ Seahwks -7 at Falcons (Favorite Pick of the Week)

Seattle’s defense is elite, Kirk Cousins can’t move, and Sam Darnold thrives in the “nobody’s watching” dome environment. I think they’ll be covering by halftime and never look back.

2️⃣ Jaguars +2 vs Colts

• The Jags have owned the matchup: 16-3-1 against the spread vs. the Colts.
• Indy’s secondary is a mess. Sauce Gardner is out; Daniel Jones is hurt.
• Jags healthier and better positioned.

3️⃣ Commanders +2 at Vikings

• JJ McCarthy has been really bad.
• Washington has lost six in a row, but Jayden Daniels is back.
• Even if Mariota comes in, Washington has the better quarterback.

4️⃣ Steelers +6 at Ravens

• Tomlin as an underdog vs Baltimore used to be automatic.
• Lamar Jackson is playing the worst football of his career.
• Divisional game, desperation on both sides – six full points is too much.

5️⃣ Eagles -3 at Chargers

I’ll admit, the analysis isn’t pretty. But:

• Chargers likely to be using a silent count at home.
• Philly’s D-line advantage is massive.
• Herbert’s status remains unclear.

🎲 Damonza’s Red-Hot Teaser (Episode 400 Edition)

A special 4-team, 8-point teaser at +160:

• Jaguars +10
• Seahawks +1
• Steelers +14
• Browns +4

I love three of these legs… and I’m terrified of the Cleveland one. I tried very hard to replace it with Tampa Bay, but Damonza held firm.

🎸 Special Episode 400 Markets at Hard Rock Bet

Thanks to Hard Rock Bet, three special props dropped in honor of Episode 400:

Will any QB throw for 400 yards this weekend? (+400)

Just needs one quarterback for this one to cash.

Trevor Lawrence 400+ passing yards vs Indianapolis (+6000)

I love this one. Indy’s battered secondary + potential shootout + Trevor’s past 370+ yard games make this my favorite long-shot play.

Patrick Mahomes 400+ passing yards vs Houston (+3000)

I know I said I’m staying away from KC this week, but this one is too juicy. Mahomes on prime time in as desperate of a situation as we’ve ever seen. I’ll take my chances, even against that defense.