Nick Wright’s Super Bowl LX Picks, Predictions & Prop Bets

This is our final NFL gambling show of the 2025 season. It’s our Super Bowl prop show, and we’ll also have our final game pick of the year for the Super Bowl. So let’s get right to it.

It’s time for Nick’s Picks, presented by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Nick Wright’s Super Bowl Game Pick

Alright – this postseason, I haven’t been great. Damonza has been exceptional. My postseason record is 4-8. Damonza’s postseason record is 8-4.

For the Super Bowl, I am laying the points with Seattle -4.5 against New England. I believe this is a 27-17 Seahawks victory. Not an easy win, but semi-comfortable – Seattle maybe leads 24-14 entering the fourth quarter and hangs on.

Sam Darnold has been a covering machine the last two years: 25-11 against the spread. In his career as a 4-point favorite or more, he’s 11-5 ATS and 15-1 straight up. As we discussed on yesterday’s show, Mike Macdonald’s defense has historically given young quarterbacks a ton of trouble – especially the first time they face him.

I think the Patriots offensive line is in rough shape compared to the Seahawks’ defensive line.

Now, we did get word that Seahawks rookie do-it-all safety Nick Emmanwori suffered an ankle injury. I don’t like that – he’s an important chess piece – but I’ve got to imagine the Toradol will be flowing freely before the Super Bowl. It’s not enough to move me off the pick.

Nick’s Pick: Seahawks -4.5

Damonza’s Super Bowl Game Pick

I’m taking New England plus the points. I think Seattle jumps on them early, but it ends up being close. Vrabel can coach them into a competitive game. I think the Patriots lose the game, but cover the spread.

Nick did note how rare it is for favorites to win but not cover, referencing Rams-Bengals from a few years ago, and warned against correlated parlays like Seattle ML + Patriots cover.

However, sharp money favors Seattle to win and New England to cover.

Damonza’s Pick: Patriots +4.5

Nick Wright’s Super Bowl Prop Bets

I’ve got a lot of props for this one. Let’s begin with anytime touchdown scorers.

Anytime Touchdowns

I’m targeting three players to find the end zone: two Seahawks and one Patriot:

Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-200)

I’d be stunned if Kenneth Walker doesn’t score. The -200 price tells you Vegas agrees. I think he’s going to be the focal point near the goal line, and if Seattle is playing from ahead like I think they are, that’s where he’s going to get his opportunities. I’m not doing the 2+ touchdowns at +260, but one touchdown feels extremely likely.

Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+260)

In the red zone, all the attention that’s going to be demanded by Jaxon Smith-Njigba could open things up for Cooper Kupp. I don’t think Kupp is going to be the main target between the 20s, but I do think there’s value here if Seattle gets into the red zone and the defense is tilted elsewhere.

Drake Maye Anytime TD (+275)

Here’s why I like this one so much. If there is any pass interference or defensive holding in the end zone that places the ball at the one, the Patriots are going to run a quarterback sneak. Drake Maye has been excellent this postseason with running the football. The one place Seattle’s defense is really susceptible is with quarterback scrambles. I think Drake is going to be under duress and running the football, whether that’s a scramble, a designed run, or a sneak. At +275, I really like it.

Quarterback Props

Now onto the passing props:

Sam Darnold Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I think Darnold’s going to have a good game. I think the Patriots’ run defense is stiff enough that they’ll slow down Kenneth Walker, and Seattle is going to have to succeed through the air. I think Darnold ends up around 245 passing yards. He’s coming off the best game of his career in the biggest spot, and I’m willing to give him credit for that.

Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-160)

If I think the Patriots are going to score fewer than 21 points, and I think Drake Maye can run one in, there’s just not enough room for multiple passing touchdowns. I think they’re much more likely to score on the ground than through the air against this Seattle defense. This one’s a little correlated with my other bets, but I’m comfortable with it.

Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Completions (-135)

I also think there’s going to be a lot of Darnold passes. Not necessarily deep passes, but volume. Something like a 24-for-33 type game. If Seattle is throwing this much, he’s going to get plenty of opportunities to clear this number.

Rushing Props

I’ve got four rushing props on the card, none of which involve either team’s running backs:

Rashid Shaheed Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jet sweep. End around. That’s it. That’s the bet.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+275)

This is a tricky one. I don’t think he’s going to be handed the ball. I think one of these guys is going to catch a wide receiver screen or a backward pass that gets ruled a lateral, and if that happens, it goes down as rushing yards. At +275, it’s worth a flyer.

Sam Darnold Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

As long as he doesn’t scramble for more than ten yards, I’m live, because he can lose yards on kneel-downs at the end of the game. It’s certainly on the board that he finishes with zero or even negative rushing yards. That’s what I’m betting on.

Drake Maye Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

That’s a huge number for a quarterback, but I think he’s going to have to run a lot in this game. Seattle is susceptible to quarterback scrambles, and Drake is going to be under pressure. I’m not worried about kneel-downs here. I think he gets into the 45-50 yard range.

Receiving Props

I’m looking at a few under-the-radar wideouts for my receiving props:

Rashid Shaheed Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I’m really betting on one explosive play here. I don’t think he’s going to be a big part of the down-to-down offense, but one catch gets this done.

Pop Douglas Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I just think he’s going to be a bigger part of the game plan. We’ve seen him make big catches in big spots already this postseason.

Mack Hollins Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Hollins is coming off injury, and I don’t think he’s going to be a huge part of New England’s offense. This is one of those over/unders that just makes sense to me.

Reception Props

Two running backs and a WR1 caught my eye for receptions:

Kenneth Walker Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)

I think the Patriots’ linebackers have been pretty good covering running backs this year. I think Walker is going to be used more as a blocker and a runner than as a receiver.

TreVeyon Henderson Under 0.5 Receptions (+140)

This is directly tied to my under on his receiving yards. I just don’t think he’s going to catch a pass.

Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)

I’m not betting his yardage props, but we’ve seen games where Diggs gets volume without production. Five catches for 17 yards. Four catches for 40 yards. I feel more comfortable betting him to catch at least five balls than betting him to hit a yardage number.

Defensive Props

This is where it gets interesting.

DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.5 Sacks (+115)

I think DeMarcus Lawrence is going to put Will Campbell in hell, and once they start cheating protection his way, it opens things up.

Leonard Williams Over 0.5 Sacks (+150)

Drake Maye has taken five sacks in every playoff game. If they slide protection to Lawrence, Williams is going to get opportunities.

Team Totals & Specials

It’s not a true Super Bowl without some specials.

Patriots Under 18.5 Points (+115)

If my score prediction is 27-17, I’ll take the extra point and the plus money.

Most Passing Yards: Sam Darnold (-120)

This just lines up with how I think the game is going to go.

Longest Reception: Rashid Shaheed (+700)

That’s what he was brought in to do. At 7-1, I’ll take the shot.

Longest Successful Field Goal Over 49.5 Yards

Jason Myers is a very good kicker. Andy Borregales has been better from 50+ than he has from 40-49. I think at least one of them makes a long one.

Each Team to Convert a 4th Down (+125)

Vrabel is going to go for fourth-and-shorts, and Seattle will too. It’s almost a coin flip in today’s NFL, and I like the plus money.

Over 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass (+160)

This is my favorite Super Bowl bet every year. Any trick play, any fake punt, anything like that, and you win. Josh McDaniels loves trick plays. It’s just a fun bet to have action on.

Final Thoughts

I’ve declined my annual octopus bet. Also, my Super Bowl MVP pick would be Sam Darnold, but the odds are too short to bet.

That’s it. Great year of gambling shows. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

Nick Wright’s Super Bowl LX Picks & Prop Bets

Anytime Touchdowns

• Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-200)
• Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+260)
• Drake Maye Anytime TD (+275)

Quarterback Props

• Sam Darnold Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)
• Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-160)
• Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Completions (-135)

Rushing Props

• Rashid Shaheed Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+275)
• Sam Darnold Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• Drake Maye Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Receiving Props

• Rashid Shaheed Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Pop Douglas Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Mack Hollins Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Reception Props

• Kenneth Walker Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)
• TreVeyon Henderson Under 0.5 Receptions (+140)
• Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)

Defensive Props

• DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.5 Sacks (+115)
• Leonard Williams Over 0.5 Sacks (+150)

Team Totals & Specials

• Patriots Under 18.5 Points (+115)
• Most Passing Yards: Sam Darnold (-120)
• Longest Reception: Rashid Shaheed (+700)
• Longest Successful Field Goal Over 49.5 Yards
• Each Team to Convert a 4th Down (+125)
• Over 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass (+160)

Damonza’s Super Bowl LX Picks & Prop Bets

• Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards (+1300)
• Sam Darnold Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-120)
• Stefon Diggs to Catch a Pass on New England’s First Drive (+130)
• Kenneth Walker Anytime TD (-200)
• Seattle 1H -5.5 (+125)
• Gatorade Color: Yellow/Green/Lime (+275)