Nick Wright’s Picks: Six Bets for NFL Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend is here, and this is not just another pick show. After a season spent grinding to stay at .500 or better, the margin for error is gone. Every pick matters.

This weekend also turns the format on its head. Damonza and I are going game by game, head to head, with full transparency on where we agree, where we don’t, and why.

Rams (-10.5) at Panthers

I understand how ugly this looks. Double-digit road favorites in the playoffs are historically a terrible bet, and the numbers say you should blindly take the home underdog. I get all of that.

I am still laying the points.

Carolina is not just the worst team in the playoffs, I think there are several teams that missed the postseason that would be better than them right now. The Rams already lost to Carolina once, which actually makes me more confident they will take this game seriously. This is not a talent matchup. This is a professionalism matchup. I will swallow the number and trust the better team to handle business.

• Nick’s Pick: Rams -10.5
• Damonza’s Pick: Panthers +10.5

Packers at Bears (+1)

Chicago is at home, healthier, and in my opinion better than Green Bay right now. Both regular season meetings came down to the final moments, and the Bears easily could have won both.

The Packers are not the same team they were earlier in the year. Jordan Love is coming off missed time, and Green Bay is dealing with multiple key injuries. I did not love how Chicago looked last week, but situationally this lines up for them. I will take Chicago plus the point at home.

• Nick’s Pick: Bears +1
• Damonza’s Pick: Bears +1

Bills at Jaguars (+1)

This is the game of the weekend.

Buffalo is the scariest team in the field because Josh Allen is a true superhero quarterback. Jacksonville, however, is the best team in the AFC right now. They are healthy, at home, and playing elite football.

I do not love the number. I actually wanted more than a point. I think Buffalo could win this game by one, which is exactly what makes this uncomfortable.

Still, Jacksonville is a 13-win team at home that should not be an underdog. Buffalo’s tendency to start slow could be a real problem if the Jaguars shorten the game with efficient offense. I will take Jacksonville +1, even though I do not feel great about it.

• Nick’s Pick: Jaguars +1
• Damonza’s Pick: Bills -1

49ers (+4.5) at Eagles

I do not trust Philadelphia’s offense.

Against playoff-caliber teams, the Eagles have struggled all season to score and separate. Their wins have largely been one-score games, and several of them required things like blocked field goals to flip outcomes.

San Francisco’s defense played its best game in a long time last week, and if they can carry that forward, this is a live underdog. I think this line should be closer to three. I am getting more than a field goal against an offense that has been broken all year. I will gladly take the Niners +4.5

• Nick’s Pick: 49ers +4.5
• Damonza’s Pick: 49ers +4.5

Chargers (+4) at Patriots

I think New England probably wins this game, but I do not think they win it by more than a field goal.

This is not a must-win legacy game for Justin Herbert, but it cannot be another disaster. I do not expect him to lay an egg. The Chargers’ defense is better than anything Drake Maye has consistently faced, and this feels like a low-scoring, cold, grind-it-out game.

If the Patriots win by a field goal, which feels very plausible, the points matter. I will take the Chargers +4.

• Nick’s Pick: Chargers +4
• Damonza’s Pick: Chargers +4

Texans at Steelers (+3)

I think Pittsburgh wins this game outright.

Yes, Mike Tomlin has not won a playoff game in a decade. I understand that. But this is still Tomlin at home, on Monday night, getting points. He has never lost a home Monday night game in his career.

Pittsburgh gets DK Metcalf back, Houston’s offense never truly fixed itself, and this spot lines up perfectly for a Steelers win. Even if you just want the points, I cannot get off this side. Steelers +3 is the pick.

• Nick’s Pick: Steelers +3
• Damonza’s Pick: Steelers +3

Nick Wright’s Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend

• Rams -10.5
• Bears +1
• Jaguars +1
• 49ers +4.5
• Chargers +4
• Steelers +3

Damonza’s Picks & Teaser

• Panters +10.5
• Bears +1
• Bills -1
• 49ers +4.5
• Chargers +4
• Steelers +3
• Teaser: Bears +9, Bills +7, Chargers +12 (+100)