Nick Wright’s Picks: NFC Over/Under Win Totals for the 2026 NFL Season

Welcome in to Episode 438 of What’s Right with Nick Wright.

It is our now time for our NFC “way too early, we are not being tied or held to these takes” over/under win totals show.

And some major news could change things, because maybe one of these teams is going to trade for Myles Garrett. The Browns did some interesting accounting in changing Garrett’s contract in a way that doesn’t really do anything other than make him more tradable from a salary cap perspective.

Let’s get into it.

NFC East Win Totals

First, we’ve got the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys – 8.5 wins: Too Low

The Dallas Cowboys are set at 8.5 wins. It’s -135 on the over, +110 on the under. So, a little juice on the over.

The whole NFC East gets the AFC South and NFC West. Not easy. AFC South, I think, is median difficulty. NFC West is very tough.

Dallas’s strength of schedule games, however, I think are pretty unlucky.

This is because they have the second-place schedule, which means they draw Tampa instead of Carolina, Baltimore instead of Pittsburgh, and Green Bay instead of Chicago. Now, I think Chicago might be better than Green Bay, but you could argue those are the three toughest teams in those divisions – they draw them all.

But I still think this is too low.

I think the Cowboys are going to draft two defensive players in the first round. I think their offense is excellent. I thought Schottenheimer did a good job last year, and I don’t think the rest of the division is too great.

Dallas is my preseason lean for divisional winner. I think Dallas wins 11 games. I don’t think there’s any awful team and I don’t think there’s any great team in the East, so I like Dallas in that spot.

New York Giants – 7.5 wins: Just Wright

The Giants are set at 7.5 wins, -110 on both sides.

They also get the AFC South and NFC West, and their strength of schedule games are Cleveland and New Orleans along with every last-place team.

You get a last-place schedule, plus you go from the coaching issues they had to John Harbaugh, hopefully Jaxson Dart a little more in control, and Malik Nabers coming back from injury. All of that plus a top-five draft pick.

I think this win total is just right.

If it were 6.5, I’d say over. At 7.5, this is a seven or eight-win team, which would be an awesome year for the Giants. I don’t believe in the offensive infrastructure enough for worst-to-first, but I do like Harbaugh bringing structure.

Philadelphia Eagles – 10.5 wins: Too High

Philly is set at 10.5 wins, +105 on the over, -125 on the under.

They have the first-place schedule, but it actually seems easier than Dallas’s. Their strength of schedule games are Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago.

This is an under to me.

I think Sirianni enters the year on one of the hottest seats in the league. I think they’re going to have to trade A.J. Brown, and they won’t get any benefit from that this year.

There’s aging and uncertainty on the offensive line, plus defensive losses. Could they make the playoffs? Sure. Could they win 10 games? Maybe.

But I think they’re more likely to win nine than 12. At 10.5, I’ll go under.

Washington Commanders – 7.5 wins: Too High

Commanders are set at 7.5 wins, -110 on both sides.

Their strength of schedule games are Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Minnesota.

This is an under.

I don’t think they have the defensive personnel, and I don’t know that they’re going to be able to protect Jayden Daniels. My concerns about his durability are well established.

I think we’re going to look back on their NFC title game run as one of the more fluky ones in recent memory – so many last-minute wins, including a Hail Mary.

My preseason prediction: Commanders finish last. I think it’s Dallas, Philly, Giants, Commanders.

NFC North Win Totals

Now for the NFC North.

Chicago Bears – 9.5 wins: Too Low

The Bears are currently at 9.5 wins, -105 on the over, -115 on the under.

This division gets the AFC East and NFC South, which is the best draw you can get.

Even with tougher strength of schedule games – Jacksonville, Philly, Seattle – I think they’re being disrespected. It’s the third-highest total in their own division.

I think they find a way to 10 wins. Caleb in year two with Ben Johnson, plus improvements on defense – I lean over.

Detroit Lions – 10.5 wins: Just Wright

The Lions are at 10.5 wins, -125 on the over, +105 on the under.

Their schedule is favorable thanks to the last-place finish, but I worry about the offensive line, how they finished last year, and whether they have a consistent pass rush outside of Hutchinson.

This feels just right.

Green Bay Packers – 10.5 wins: Too High

Packers are at 10.5 wins, +100 on the over, -120 on the under.

Their strength of schedule is tough – Houston, Dallas, Rams – and I’m not sure what to expect early with Micah’s recovery timeline.

I’d lean under.

Minnesota Vikings – 8.5 wins: Too High

Vikings are at 8.5 wins, +110 on the over, -135 on the under.

This is a fade-the-public play. There’s too much hype, and the quarterback situation is strange.

I’ll go under.

NFC South Win Totals

Next up, the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons – 7.5 wins: Too High

Falcons are at 7.5 wins, +105 on the over, -125 on the under.

They draw the AFC North and NFC North, and their strength of schedule games include Kansas City and San Francisco.

I’ll go under.

Carolina Panthers – 6.5 wins: Too Low

Panthers are at 6.5 wins, -150 on the over, +125 on the under.

Their strength of schedule is tough, but 6.5 wins for a defending division champion returning its quarterback and coach is a slap in the face.

I don’t love it, but I’ll go over.

New Orleans Saints – 7.5 wins: Too High

Saints are at 7.5 wins, -120 on the over, -105 on the under.

Even with a favorable schedule, I think they’re still pulling themselves out of the abyss.

I don’t think they get to eight wins – under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.5 wins: Too Low

Tampa is at 8.5 wins, -115 on the over, -105 on the under.

I can’t quit Baker. I think they’re going to win the division. I like them at +160 to win it.

They need better defense, but I like their run game and expect a bounce-back year.

NFC West Win Totals

Wrapping up with the NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals – 4.5 wins: Too High

Cardinals are at 4.5 wins, +110 on the over, -135 on the under.

I think Arizona’s got the makings of the worst team in their conference. The quarterback room is rough, the schedule is brutal, and I feel like they’ve got 0-6 in the division written all over them – they could end up winning one game.

Los Angeles Rams – 10.5 wins: Too Low

Rams are at 10.5 wins, -160 on the over, +130 on the under.

If Stafford’s healthy, they’re positioned to be the best team in the league, and I love that they addressed their biggest weakness in the secondary.

I still think they’re a 13-win team. That’s an over.

San Francisco 49ers – 10.5 wins: Just Wright

49ers are at 10.5 wins, +125 on the over, -150 on the under.

I think that number is just right. It’s a brutal division, but the schedule is pretty nice.

I’d stay away from it.

Seattle Seahawks – 10.5 wins: Too Low

Seahawks are at 10.5 wins, -135 on the over, +110 on the under.

Their schedule isn’t brutal for a first-place team, and I think they can get to 11 wins.

I don’t think they hit last year’s peak, but I still like them to go over.

Nick Wright’s NFC Win Totals Recap

Here are all of my NFC win total leans, in review:

Overs:

• Dallas o8.5
• Chicago o9.5
• Carolina o6.5
• Tampa o8.5
• LA Rams o10.5
• Seattle o10.5

Unders:

• Philly u10.5
• Washington u7.5
• Green Bay u10.5
• Minnesota u8.5
• Atlanta u7.5
• Saints u7.5
• Cardinals u4.5

Just Wright:

• Giants 7.5
• Lions 10.5
• 49ers 10.5