Nick Wright’s Picks for Week 10: Falcons Soar in Berlin, Bucs & Bears Handle Business at Home

I almost made the same mistake twice. I was this close to putting Detroit back on the card – and then I remembered what happened last week. That defense. That miserable, lifeless performance that made me swear off the Lions for at least seven days.

So, no Detroit this time. Lesson learned.

Let’s talk about the games that actually matter. Five plays for NFL Week 10 – and yes, I feel every bit as confident as I did last week when we went 3-2. This week feels different though. Feels like a 5-0 week.

 

Atlanta (+6.5) vs. Indianapolis (Berlin Game)

We start in Berlin, where Atlanta’s getting a little too much disrespect. The line moved from +5.5 to +6.5 after the Colts traded for Sauce Gardner – a move that somehow bumped the spread a full point. Come on. A cornerback doesn’t move a line like that.

So I’ll take the extra value. Atlanta’s defense can keep this close, and Bijan Robinson and Drake London have both started to find a rhythm again. Yes, it’s a Europe game, but this feels like a one-possession finish either way.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. New England

This one’s simple. You’re giving me the better team, at home, off a bye – and I only need to lay less than a field goal?

Tampa checks every box. Baker Mayfield is 4-0 straight up as a favorite and 6-4 ATS with extended rest. Meanwhile, Drake Maye is getting absolutely crushed behind that Patriots line and is due for regression. Tampa wins this one comfortably.

Jacksonville (-1) at Houston

This is a “fade Davis Mills” game.

The Texans offense looked hopeless last week with Mills under center, and now that C.J. Stroud’s ruled out again, I don’t see how Houston keeps up. The Jags defense has been stingy, the offensive line is solid, and Trevor Lawrence has enough weapons to handle business.

Chicago (-3.5) vs. NY Giants

I’ll say it again: the Giants’ season ended the night they blew that game to Denver. Everything since then has been proof. They’re broken, banged up, and Brian Daboll looks more exasperated every week.

The Bears, on the other hand, have an offense that can explode at any time. They’re favored by 3.5 at Hard Rock Bet – that’s a point cheaper than anywhere else. Maybe that’s the New York money talking, but I’ll happily take advantage.

Pittsburgh (+3) at LA Chargers

This one’s becoming a weekly theme: Never doubt Mike Tomlin as an underdog.

The Steelers are heading west, sure, but they’re getting points – and against a Chargers team missing star tackle Joe Alt. That Pittsburgh defense is rejuvenated, and if there’s one coach who covers in spots like this, it’s Tomlin.

Oh, and SoFi will sound like Acrisure Stadium West. This isn’t even a true road game.

Nick Wright’s Week 10 Card

• Atlanta +6.5
• Tampa Bay -2.5
• Jacksonville -1
• Chicago -3.5
• Pittsburgh +3

Three favorites, two dogs. Confidence meter: maxed out.

Damonza’s Teaser: “We’re Due”

After a rough week (Detroit, I’m looking at you), Damonza’s back with a new 8-point teaser:

• Buffalo down to a pick’em
• Cleveland up to +6
• Philly up to +10

He’s calling it the “Get Right Teaser.” I’m less bullish on the Cleveland leg, but Buffalo and Philly both feel safe.

Player Prop of the Week: Kyle Monangai Anytime TD (-125)

We’re staying undefeated on touchdown props. This week we ride with Kyle Monangai in that Bears-Giants matchup. Yes, the odds aren’t sexy, but he’s coming off the game of a lifetime and has all the momentum – bad weather in Chicago should set up a few goal line attempts.

Monangai Anytime TD. Lock it in.

Good luck this weekend, everyone. Download the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app, and we’ll see you back here when we’re 5-0.