Nick Wright’s Picks for the Last 16 of the NCAA Tournament

It’s the time of year when the stakes rise, the margins shrink, and every possession feels like it could swing a season. With the Men’s NCAA tournament field trimmed down to just sixteen, and the spotlight getting brighter, it’s time to double down.

Let’s start with Houston.

I liked Houston coming into the tournament, and nothing through the first two rounds has changed that. In fact, it’s only strengthened my position. Houston handled its opening games with authority—no drama, no late scares, just control from tip to final buzzer. That matters this time of year.

Now add in the path.

One of the reasons Houston stood out early was the perceived vulnerability at the top of its region. That concern has already proven valid, with Florida going down to Iowa. And then there’s the hidden edge: location. Houston will essentially be playing in its own backyard, with games hosted in the city of Houston. That’s not just a slight advantage—that’s a real, tangible boost in a tournament setting.

• Nick’s Pick: Houston – South Region Winner +110

Then there’s St. John’s.

I’ve been consistent here, too. I picked them to make a deep run, and I’m not backing off now. Getting points against Duke only makes it more appealing.

Duke may still carry the brand, but the performance hasn’t matched it. Through two games, I see only brief flashes of high-level play—maybe 15 good minutes total. That’s not the profile of a team you trust when the competition stiffens.

St. John’s, on the other hand, brings defense, discipline, and strong coaching—three things that tend to travel well in March. I believe they can win outright on the moneyline, but even if they don’t, the number feels too big at 6.5.

But if you believe in the team—and I do—you take the points.

• Nick’s Pick: St. John’s +6.5

Nick Wright’s Last 16 Picks

• Houston to win its region (+110)
• St. John’s +6.5 vs. Duke

Same philosophy, same confidence. Survive and advance—but more importantly, bet with conviction.