Nick Wright’s Picks: Five Bets for NFL Week 18

Week 18 in the NFL is always weird. Everyone pretends it isn’t, but it is. Every year, there’s at least one team that needs a game, is heavily favored, and somehow ends up sweating in the fourth quarter against a team that allegedly has nothing to play for.

So let’s not overcomplicate this. I’ve got five games I’m betting this week. I’m riding with them, I’m owning them, and if they go sideways, that’s on me.

Here we go.

1. Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Panthers

I’ll start here, because this is the one people are going to roll their eyes at.

Tampa Bay has been one of the worst teams in football for the last two months. Carolina has actually been… competent at times. I get it.

But Baker Mayfield and this team cannot go out like this.

They’re at home. They’re laying less than a field goal. And they still have a path—however slim—to the playoffs. Yes, they need help. Yes, they need the Saints to win the next day. But you don’t get to this point of the season, in your own building, with something tangible still on the table, and just fold.

This feels like the absolute bottom of the market on Tampa. Everyone hates them. Everyone’s tired of them. They haven’t covered the spread in forever. That’s exactly when I’m willing to step in.

I don’t love it. I’m not bragging about it. I’m just laying the two and a half and moving on.

2. Seahawks -1 at 49ers

I think Seattle is better than San Francisco right now. And I think the matchup matters.

The Niners’ defense is 32nd in the league in sacks. Dead last. And Sam Darnold—whatever else you think about him—has struggled most when teams can actually get to him. That’s not what San Francisco does.

The Rams have given Darnold trouble this year because they can generate pressure. Carolina even bothered him last week. The Niners can’t do that.

People forget: these teams played in Week 1, and Seattle had the ball in the red zone with a chance to win the game. Darnold fumbled. That’s the margin.

I think Seattle wins this time. I think Seattle gets the one seed. And I think laying a single point is fine.

3. Raiders +5.5 vs. Chiefs

Yes, I know. I bet against the Raiders every week. That’s not changing philosophically.

But this Chiefs offense cannot be five-and-a-half point favorites against anyone right now.

• They can’t run the ball.
• They can’t pass the ball.
• They can’t consistently move the ball.
• And they’re on the road, without the Arrowhead energy that carried them last week.

And here’s the thing people don’t want to talk about: the Chiefs have something real to gain here beyond just winning a football game.

If the Raiders lose, they likely get the No. 1 overall pick. That’s how they fix their quarterback problem. The Chiefs preventing that? That matters. That’s rivalry stuff. That’s real.

I’m not saying Kansas City is actively trying to lose. I am saying they can’t beat teams by a touchdown right now. And if the Raiders hang around—and they will—I’ll take the points.

4. Dolphins +12 at Patriots

This one is simple: that’s a lot of points.

Every Week 18, there’s one big favorite that needs the game and somehow ends up tied late in the fourth quarter. This feels like that game.

Miami’s fighting for survival—not just playoff life, but reputational life. Mike McDaniel is coaching for his job whether anyone says it out loud or not. And yes, I know all the cold-weather stats. But let me ask you something:

Are those Mike McDaniel stats? Or are those Tua stats? Because those aren’t the same thing.

I’m getting 12 points. I don’t need Miami to win. I don’t even need them to look good. I just need them to exist for four quarters.

5. Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens

This is the one I feel best about.

I don’t care who’s playing quarterback for Baltimore. A banged-up Lamar, Tyler Huntley—it honestly doesn’t matter to me.

This game is ending with someone winning by three points.

I don’t know who. I don’t pretend to know who. But I do know that I’m getting three and a half points with Mike Tomlin at home in a divisional game.

That’s it. That’s the analysis.

Tomlin getting points at home against a division rival is one of the most reliable betting spots in the league. I don’t even know if he’s ever lost in this situation. It feels like he hasn’t.

The Week 18 Card

To recap, my five bets for Week 18:

1. Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Panthers
2. Seahawks -1 at 49ers
3. Raiders +5.5 vs. Chiefs
4. Dolphins +12 at Patriots
5. Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens

We don’t need perfection. We need at least three and two. That’s the goal. Get through the week, get into the playoffs, and then hopefully do what we’ve done before—go on a real run when the games matter most.

Be safe this weekend. Enjoy Week 18. Happy New Year.