Every week, I try to be honest about what I love, what I merely like, and what I’m staying away from. Week 17 has a few games that fall squarely into that first category for me, including what I think is my favorite pick of the entire weekend.
Let’s get right to it for NFL week 17. All referenced odds are from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Cowboys -6.5 at Commanders
This is my favorite pick of the weekend.
I believe Josh Johnson is starting at quarterback for Washington. I don’t know that with 100% certainty, but if that’s the case, they simply aren’t going to be able to move the ball. And yes, I understand the hesitation—Dallas has been eliminated from the playoffs, and people might think they’ll be demoralized.
I don’t buy that at all.
I think the Cowboys have felt eliminated for a while. They’re still going to move the ball, and I think they’re going to blow out the Commanders. Dak Prescott owns Washington in his career: 12–2 straight up, and the Cowboys have covered the spread five straight in this matchup. I love Dallas -6.5.
Jaguars -6.5 at Colts
Give Philip Rivers credit—he played way better than I expected on Monday night. But let’s be honest: the Colts’ season effectively ended against the 49ers. He came back to try to make a playoff push, and it just didn’t get there.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is playing for a lot. They’re trying to lock up the division and stay alive for the one seed. The Jaguars have been crushing the AFC South, going 5–0 against the spread in their last five games against division opponents.
The Colts are falling apart again. This is one of those games I’m comfortable laying the points. I’ll take Jacksonville -6.5.
Steelers -4 at Browns
This line opened at 4.5 and dropped to 4.
I know laying more than a field goal with Mike Tomlin in a divisional game hasn’t always been the smartest historical play. But I just think Shedeur Sanders has been really bad the last two weeks.
This is a Pittsburgh team that knows exactly what’s in front of them. Take care of business here, and Week 18 doesn’t matter. They win the division and put themselves in great position. I have no problem laying the four points with the Steelers.
Bills -2.5 vs. Eagles
I think Buffalo is a lot better than Philadelphia.
They’re at home, and I’m laying less than a field goal. Yes, the Eagles are getting Jaylen Carter and Lane Johnson back, which matters. But Philly has already locked up the division. They can’t be the one seed, and they can’t fall out of winning the division either.
No matter what happens, Philadelphia is either the two or the three seed—and they’re probably the three. Buffalo needs this game. Buffalo is better. Buffalo is at home. I’ll take the Bills -2.5.
Bears +3 at 49ers
This is our one underdog this week.
The line has moved from two, to two-and-a-half, to three—and I’ll gladly take the full three points. I think the Bears’ run game and offense match up well against this 49ers defense. I genuinely think Chicago moneyline is live here.
There’s also a rest edge here: the Bears played Saturday, while the Niners played Monday. It’s not a full mini-bye, but it helps. Give me Chicago +3.
Final Picks for Week 17
- Cowboys -6.5
- Jaguars -6.5
- Steelers -4
- Bills -2.5
- Bears +3
If you’re betting favorites, bet them early. We’re doing this on Tuesday, and we’re betting them early.
All referenced odds are subject to change.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, MI, NJ, OH, TN, VA)
