Week 15 is here, and as always, every line comes straight from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. After sorting through the stay-aways and the chaos that is late-season NFL football, I’ve locked in my five favorite plays of the week. Some of these numbers may look a little wild on the surface — double-digit spreads everywhere — but that’s the board we’re working with, and I actually feel great about this slate.
Let’s dive in.
1. Bills -1 at New England
This matchup is simple for me. Yes, Buffalo is coming off a bye, and yes, divisional road favorites can be tricky — but this is basically a pick’em that has bounced between –1 and +1 all week.
I don’t even need to be convinced Buffalo is better than New England. I just know the Bills are desperate. With the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals all stumbling in various ways, Buffalo has a clear path back toward relevance… but only if they win this game. Their run game should work against New England, and the Patriots don’t have the ground attack needed to exploit Buffalo’s biggest weakness.
- Pick: Bills -1
2. Seahawks -13.5 vs. Colts
Yes, it’s a massive number, but look at the quarterback situation. Indianapolis might be trotting out Philip Rivers in 2025 the way things are trending. They’re a mess, and they’re walking into Mike Macdonald’s defense — one of the fiercest units in the league.
Seattle, meanwhile, loves being a big favorite in the regional “no one’s watching this” window. Sam Darnold is 11–0 straight up as a favorite of seven or more points and 9–2 ATS. I’ve been riding Seattle, and I’ll keep riding them.
- Pick: Seahawks -13.5
3. Raiders +11.5 at Eagles
I know, I know — the Raiders aren’t good. Believe me, nobody knows it more than I do after being bizarrely high on them before the season. But right now, I simply cannot trust the Eagles offense to win by two touchdowns, especially after an overtime Monday night game, which historically leads to poor ATS performance the following week.
And did you watch Vegas last week? This team lives for the backdoor cover. They kicked a field goal with one second left while down 10 just to cover the spread. I’ll gladly take the points.
- Pick: Raiders +11.5
4. 49ers -12.5 vs. Titans
This may be the craziest of my picks, but hear me out: the Titans got their “win of the month” last week. Now they walk into a matchup with a rested San Francisco team and a defense that should smother rookie Cam Ward.
If the Niners get to 24 points — and I believe they will — Tennessee simply cannot get to 13. Add in the fact that inferior offenses have put up 400-plus yards on this Titans defense, and I’m fully comfortable laying the big number.
- Pick: 49ers -12.5
5. Bengals +2.5 vs. Ravens
I don’t think Lamar Jackson is thrilled with Baltimore right now, and while Joe Burrow may sound “over it,” he knows he cost Cincinnati the Buffalo game with back-to-back picks. Expect a sharp bounce-back from the Bengals offense, even without Tee Higgins.
Getting 2.5 points at home in a divisional matchup with Burrow under center? That’s an autoplay for me. The Ravens aren’t the kind of team you should be laying road chalk with at this moment.
- Pick: Bengals +2.5
Final Card – Week 15
- Bills -1 at Patriots
- Seahawks -13.5 vs Colts
- Raiders +11.5 at Eagles
- 49ers -12.5 vs Titans
- Bengals +2.5 vs Ravens
It’s a board dominated by big favorites, high variance, and some ugly teams catching numbers… and I love it.
Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, MI, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-833-PLAYWISE. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1‑800‑GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, MI, NJ, OH, TN, VA)
