Nick Wright’s Picks: AFC Over/Under Win Totals for the 2026 NFL Season

It’s never too early to talk NFL betting. The season-long team over/unders are already available on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook – and while the draft hasn’t even happened yet, this is where I’m leaning at the moment. Let’s get into it, starting first with the AFC.

I’ll be evaluating each line as too high, too low, or… just wright.

AFC East Over/Unders

First, we’ve got the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills – 10.5 wins: Too Low

The Buffalo Bills are set at 10.5 wins. So they’re slightly favored to the Over.

This is what’s important to remember: for every team we talk about in the AFC East, they will play the AFC West and the NFC North. Which means the AFC East got the nut low divisional draw. They got, in my opinion, the hardest division to play in the AFC and probably the hardest or second hardest division to play in the NFC.

Buffalo has all of their own division, plus the AFC West and NFC North, plus these strength-of-schedule games. They get the second-place team from the AFC North—that’s Baltimore. That kind of really sucks. It’s like, we get the second-place team from the North, but it’s Baltimore.

They get the second-place team from the South—that’s Houston. That’s pretty unfortunate. And the second-place team from the NFC West, which is the Rams.

That is brutal. They drew tough divisions, but they get lucky with the division they’re in at least.

Those three divisions they get the second-place team from are, I think a lot of people believe, the best teams in those divisions. That Baltimore is better than Pittsburgh, that Houston is better than Jacksonville, and that the Rams are better than the Seahawks.

With all of that, for Buffalo, I will take the Over because this is the most important thing: six games in their own division means they’ll likely go 2-0 against Miami, 2-0 against the Jets, and split with New England. If they go 5-1 there, can they go 6-5 in their remaining games?

And on the road against Denver, Green Bay, Vegas, Minnesota, Houston, and the Rams. Again, it’s a brutal schedule outside of the division, but they win 11 games every year with Josh Allen. To me, this is a touch too low.

Miami Dolphins – 4.5 wins: Too High

Miami Dolphins at 4.5 wins.

Again, same divisions—AFC West and NFC North. Their strength-of-schedule games are the Bengals, the Colts, and the Niners. Not a murderous row, but not a cakewalk.

Their total is at 4.5, and I’m here to tell you that’s too high. They are going to be the worst team in the league by a lot. I would be on two-win watch for the Miami Dolphins. That strikes me as too high.

We don’t need to spend more time on them. It’s too high.

New England Patriots – 9.5 wins: Too High

The New England Patriots at 9.5 wins

A touch too high.

I think the Patriots come way back down to earth—from the easiest schedule in the NFL this century to the AFC West, NFC North, plus Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Seattle.

I think they’re a nine-win team. You could say that means it’s just right, but I think it’s more likely they win eight than they win 11. So I think that’s too high.

New York Jets: Just Wright

Jets at 5.5 wins.

I’m going to say just right, but if I had to pick a side, I would go Over.

They have two games against the Dolphins, and games against the Raiders, the Browns, the Titans, and the Cardinals. That’s six games against the worst teams in football.

Now, they are also one of the worst teams in football—I understand that. But if they can just steal a couple, if they can go 2-10 or 2-9 against good teams and then 4-2 against the worst teams, I could see them getting to the Over.

It’s probably just right, but if I had to, I would go Over.

And I love Buffalo at -145 to win the division. I love it.

AFC North Over/Unders

Let’s go to the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens – 10.5 wins: Just Wright

The Ravens are at 10.5 wins.

They’re in a very different position than the AFC East. Everyone in their division plays their own division plus the AFC South and NFC South. The NFC South is the worst division in football every year.

Baltimore also gets a second-place schedule: Chargers, Bills, and Cowboys. Tough, not brutal.

I think this is just right. If I had to pick, I’d go Over—bolstered by the fact that their schedule is smooth.

I think their division is soft all of a sudden. Pittsburgh without Tomlin and with a 42-year-old Rodgers, Cleveland in perpetual hell, and I don’t really believe in Cincinnati.

My concern is they lost more than they brought in, and I don’t love the lack of weapons for Lamar. But historically, Lamar fresh off a contract dominates – and I’m assuming he’s getting a new deal.

Cincinnati Bengals – 9.5 wins: Just Wright

Bengals at 9.5 wins.

I think this is just right. They’re the same team every year—awesome offense, shaky offensive line, terrible defense. I don’t trust the organization to win 12 games.

Cleveland Browns – 6.5 wins: Just Wright

Next, Browns at 6.5 wins.

Their strength-of-schedule games are Raiders, Jets, and Giants. That’s pretty sick.

I’m going to call this just right. I don’t have the courage to pick a Browns Over, but they could be frisky.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5 wins: Too High

Next, Steelers at 8.5 wins.

I’m going Under. I think they will miss Tomlin. This whole Aaron Rodgers situation is a mess.

To me, this is too high. I would go Under on Pittsburgh.

And I like Baltimore at -140 to win the division.

AFC South Over/Unders

Moving on to the South.

Houston Texans – 9.5 wins: Too High

Houston Texans at 9.5 wins.

I think this is too high. I’m worried about C.J. Stroud, and it’s hard for a defense to be that dominant year over year. This would be an Under.

Indianapolis Colts – 8.5 wins: Too High

Colts at 8.5 wins.

Too high. I didn’t believe in them last year, and I don’t believe in them this year, and are we forgetting Daniel Jones tore his achilles?

Jacksonville Jaguars – 9.5 wins: Too Low

Jaguars at 9.5 wins.

I believe in the Jags. Year two of Liam Coen, Trevor feeling good—I think they’re a double-digit win team. That’s too low.

Tennessee Titans – 6.5 wins: Just Wright

Titans at 6.5 wins.

Feels just right. Six or seven wins. That checks out.

Houston is the favorite to win the division, but I like Jacksonville at +175.

AFC West Over/Unders

Now to my division, the AFC West.

Denver Broncos – 9.5 wins: Too Low

Denver Broncos at 9.5 wins.

I think this is a touch low. They brought everyone back, and Bo Nix looked awesome in the playoffs. They won 14 last year—they could drop by four wins and still hit the Over.

Kansas City Chiefs – 10.5 wins: Too Low

Chiefs at 10.5 wins.

That is too low. They still get a lot of favorable games. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs. That’s an Over for me, and you get plus money.

Las Vegas Raiders – 5.5 wins: Just Wright

Raiders at 5.5 wins.

Feels just right, but I would lean Over.

Los Angeles Chargers – 10.5 wins: Too High

Chargers at 10.5 wins.

This is a red-hot Under for me. Their schedule is brutal, and I don’t think they’re going to be as good as people expect.

Nick Wright’s 2026 AFC Division Winner Picks

So my division picks:

• AFC West: Chiefs
• AFC East: Bills
• AFC North: Ravens
• AFC South: Jaguars

A little chalky, but that’s how it goes this time of year. We’ll see how the draft changes things. Talk to you guys next week.