We are nine days out from the Super Bowl, and today’s show is all about recapping our preseason betting show, because every single one of those bets has now settled. Futures, season win totals, make/miss the playoffs, make/miss the Super Bowl – all of it. We finally know how everything played out.
As always, all lines referenced are from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Nick Wright’s Championship Sunday Picks Recap
Before we get into the season-long recap, let’s start with last week’s picks. As has been the story of this postseason, I did very poorly. Damonza did very well.
- Denver +5.5 against New England was a winner. I had it. So did Damonza.
- Rams +2.5 at Seattle was a loser. I had it. Damonza was on the other side.
Here’s something I didn’t share with you guys. I was watching Patriots-Broncos. The game was tied 7-7, maybe 10-7, and the snow was coming down hard. I live bet under 26.5 because I just didn’t see how we were getting 10 more points. It felt like field goals or maybe one touchdown at most. That one hit.
Then I did something I almost never do. I thought the Rams were going to move the ball at will against Seattle, so I put together a touchdown scorer Same Game Parlay: Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua.
In my head, I’m thinking if I’m right on all three of these, the Rams are obviously winning the game. So I also took the Rams moneyline, which turned the whole thing into a 20-to-1 ticket. After the Puka touchdown, I was being offered 6-to-1 on the cashout.
But of course, I’m never cashing out.
Stafford’s incompletion on 4th & 4 was brutal because all my guys had already scored. The Rams scored three touchdowns – just the three guys I picked – and I still lost. That one hurt.
Nick Wright’s NFL Regular Season Betting Recap
In the regular season, I finished dead even at 44-44-2. But with the vig, that means I lost a little money – because we’re honorable on this show.
Season Win Total Overs
Winners:
- ✅Jaguars Over 7.5 (won 13 games – great pick)
- ✅Bears Over 8.5 (won 11-12 games)
- ✅Falcons Over 7.5 (got lucky – started 4-9, won four straight)
Losers:
- ❌Buccaneers Over 9.5 (collapsed late)
- ❌Chiefs Over 11.5 (won six games – brutal)
- ❌Raiders Over 6.5 (they got the No. 1 pick – bad bet)
So: three winners, two dead losers, one unlucky loss.
Season Win Total Unders
Once again, I went 3-3 on unders.
Winners:
- ✅Bengals Under 9.5 (never in doubt)
- ✅Cowboys Under 8.5 (won exactly eight – tie vs. GB saved us)
- ✅Vikings Under 9.5 (stone-cold winner)
Losers:
- ❌Colts Under 7.5 (fell apart late but still beat us)
- ❌Broncos Under 9.5 (No. 1 seed – bad miss)
- ❌49ers Under 10.5 (won 12; felt unlucky)
I bet the over on an AFC West team that got the No. 1 pick and the under on one that got the No. 1 seed. Not great.
Nick Wright’s NFL Postseason Futures Recap
We did poorly on Make the Playoffs markets, but very well on picking teams to Miss the Playoffs.
Make the Playoffs Bets
- ✅Jaguars +180 (winner)
- ❌Chiefs -380 (disaster)
- ❌Buccaneers -170 (collapse)
- ❌Raiders +340 (half-unit)
- ❌Giants +500 (quarter-unit)
Miss the Playoffs Bets
- ❌Steelers -140 (lost – Ravens Week 18 disaster)
- ❌Broncos +130 (wrong all year)
- ✅Colts -260 (winner)
- ✅Cowboys -210 (winner)
- ✅Vikings +100 (winner)
- ✅Cardinals -140 (winner)
This was my most profitable section, especially with the four-team miss-the-playoffs parlay: Saints, Jets, Browns, Colts. That was a two-unit preseason bet at -135 and it hit.
Nick Wright’s Division Winners & Super Bowl Exactas
This is where my winners end.
Division Winners
- ❌Chiefs to win AFC West (loser)
- ❌Bucs to win NFC South (loser)
- ❌Ravens/Bills division parlay (loser – got lucky missing both individually)
The dumbest bet in hindsight was Chiefs -380 to make the playoffs. If I was already betting them to win the division, that was unnecessary exposure.
Super Bowl Exactas
- ❌Chiefs over Tampa at 55-1
- ❌Chiefs over Tampa at 110-1
I do one unit on each every year, so I basically start the season down two units.
Final Accounting
- ✅Winning Bets: +14.95 units
- ❌Losing Bets: -21.05 units
- Net: -6.1 units
If I remove the Chiefs -380 playoff bet, I finish down 2.3 units, which is basically the expected loss when betting on this many futures.
Not a profitable season. Barely scratched .500. We move on.
Damonza’s NFL Futures Recap
Damonza only placed five preseason futures, all plus money.
- ✅Jaguars to win AFC South +300
- ❌Bengals to lose in Divisional Round +425
- ❌Ravens to win Super Bowl +600
- ❌Bijan Robinson most rushing TDs +800 – unlucky loss
- ❌Joe Burrow most passing yards +450
Four one-unit losses, one three-unit win = -1 unit total. That’s a win when it comes to futures betting.
Nick Wright’s Favorite Super Bowl LX Prop
Now looking ahead to bigger and better things, here’s my favorite prop bet for Super Bowl LX so far:
TreVeyon Henderson Under 3.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
They do not trust him in pass protection. He is not on the field for passing downs:
- Last five games: 2 catches, 7 yards total
- Conference Championship snaps: 4 total, three were rushes
- He had zero targets in his last game
He’s simply not going to be involved in the passing game. The downside is sweating every snap, but the usage just isn’t there.
Nick Wright’s Early Super Bowl 61 Futures
- Chiefs +1500: absolutely betting this
- Seahawks +900: number will get worse, small taste only
- Jaguars +2000: value with roster continuity
- Commanders +6000: long-shot if you believe in Jayden Daniels
The Chiefs having worse odds than half the league is insulting. They’ll be fine.
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