The full 2025 – 2026 NFL schedule will be released this week, so we figured it was as good a time as any to take a quick temperature check on the current offseason NFL betting trends through Hard Rock Bet. From popular win totals, to Super Bowl winners, to who’s going to take home regular season honors and awards – there’s interesting betting developments across the board.
Spoiler alert: Since Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sportsbook in Florida, you might notice some surprising results.
What’s happening with NFL Win Totals
We wrote last week about the impact of the NFL schedule release on regular season win totals, but as of May 13th before the full schedule has been announced, here are the trends we’re tracking:
Most-bet NFL team win totals
- Miami Dolphins (8.5 wins)
- New York Giants (5.5 wins)
- New England Patriots (8.5 wins)
Due in part to Hard Rock Bet’s prominence in Florida, the Dolphins drawing a lot of betting attention on the season long over/under makes sense here.
Similarly, Hard Rock Bet’s New Jersey sports betting presence, a small 5.5 win line, and the renewed hope that comes with drafting a new quarterback could be reasons why the Giants find themselves at number 2.
As for the Patriots? To date 63% of the wagers are on the team to go over that 8.5 win line so bettors are well and truly buying a resurgence in New England.
Going over: NY Giants
The New York Giants are currently the most-bet team to exceed their projected win total of 5.5 wins. The second most-bet team overall, a whopping 93% of the wagers are on the G-Men to win at least six games and cash the over.
Despite a 3-14 24/25 season, there seems to be some optimism here on the betting side.
As a lifelong Giants fan, I hope they’re right.
Going under: Miami Dolphins
Taking into account just a dash of local pessimism, the Miami Dolphins have currently accumulated the most bets of any NFL team to go under their projected win total of 8.5 games. To this point in the offseason, 74% of the bets on the Dolphins are on the team failing to reach 9 wins.
Interestingly enough, the Dolphins hit the 9-win mark in four straight seasons before registering just eight wins last season during an injury-laden campaign.
Where’s the money going?
While the total number of bets is interesting in its own right, it’s not necessarily where the money is actually going. The Saints, Vikings, and Cowboys have received the most handle on the win total market, while a trio of AFC contenders, the Bills, Ravens, and Texans, have received the least.
Outlooks for the Big Game
Shifting focus to the Big Game, Hard Rock Bet posted its first set of live Super Bowl odds shortly after the confetti finished falling over the Birds in New Orleans back in February. Here’s how the market is shaping up so far during the offseason:
Most-bet teams to win Super Bowl LX on Hard Rock Bet
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Buffalo Bills
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Purely based on volume of bets the defending champion Eagles are pacing the field, but the Buffalo Bills aren’t far behind. As for the Bucs currently ranking third, part of that is certainly down to Hard Rock Bet’s influence in the Florida betting market… but Baker Mayfield was the only player in NFL history to post a 4,500 yard, 40 passing TD, 71.3% completion percentage season… and bettors seem to be on board for more.
Betting Super Bowl finalists
One of the most popular markets for betting Super Bowl futures is the ‘Finalists’ market, where the task is to pick the two teams who will face off for the Lombardi trophy next February.
Most-bet Super Bowl LX matchup
- Bills vs Lions
- Bills vs Eagles
- Ravens vs Eagles
At quick glance the most popular matchups here are about what you’d expect to see. Combinations of the Bills and Ravens from the AFC and the Lions and Eagles from the NFC are certainly plausible.
Interestingly enough, the Chiefs have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl in five of the last six seasons. However, a Chiefs vs Eagles rematch is the 9th most-bet Super Bowl matchup and the first time we see Kansas City on the list.
Giants vs Titans Super Bowl?
Surprisingly, Hard Rock Bet has accepted more than twenty wagers on an exact Super Bowl matchup of Giants vs Titans at +500000.
Again, as a Giants fan I really hope they’re right.
NFL Awards: early betting data
NFL Awards futures like MVP and Rookie of the Year are fun ways to engage in season-long NFL sweats.
Most-bet players for 2025 NFL MVP
- Joe Burrow
- Baker Mayfield
- Jayden Daniels
Joe Burrow is currently the most-bet player to win the 2025 NFL MVP. Hard Rock Bet is active with sports betting in Ohio, but there’s buzz around Burrow everywhere. He led the league in passing yards (4,918) and touchdown passes (43) in 2024, but poor team results kept him out of contention for the award.
Next up, we mentioned Baker Mayfield’s outstanding 2024 campaign earlier and there’s every reason to believe he could be better in 2025. While there’s probably some Florida-bias going on here, the Bucs Wide Receiver room is one of the deepest in the league, creating ample opportunity for a statistically impressive season.
Rounding out the current podium is the reigning Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels. He was sensational in 2024, and bettors backing him to take another step forward in 2025 certainly tracks.
Again… as a Giants fan… well, I hope they’re wrong.
Longshot NFL MVPs
The MVP market includes a wide range of players, and Hard Rock Bet has taken bets on a wide range of players. Interesting underdogs that have received action to win the NFL MVP award include:
- George Pickens
- Khalil Shakir
- Jalen Carter
Sensation in waiting: Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter was drafted second overall in the 2025 NFL Draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars and looks set to be one of the stories of the season. The two-way player is one of the favorites to win both the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards. In fact, he’s currently leading the way in both markets.
- 19% of Offensive Rookie of the Year bets on Hard Rock Bet are on Travis Hunter
- 31% of the Defensive Rookie of the year bets on Hard Rock Bet are on Travis Hunter
And for those inclined, Hard Rock Bet has a special market allowing players to bet on Hunter winning both Rookie of the Year trophies.
NFL markets available now on Hard Rock Bet
Betting on the NFL is a year round activity. Check out the full list of available markets today – from futures to the Eagles vs Cowboys on opening night.
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