We’ve hit the dog days of the NFL calendar—the point where injuries, coaching tightness, and playoff math start to warp lines and public perception. It’s where you separate the contenders from the content. Here’s how I’m playing it.
Monday Night: Eagles at Packers (-2)
- Pick: Packers (under a field goal)
Green Bay’s the more well-rounded team right now. At Lambeau, point spread under three, I like the Packers’ explosiveness when they play up in class—and the Eagles’ offense still hasn’t proved it’s “fixed” against a real defense. Big game for LaFleur; I think he answers.
Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins
- Pick: Bills -9.5
If Buffalo’s a legit AFC threat, this is a step-on-the-throat spot. That defensive front looked like a Super Bowl unit against KC; if they bring 80% of that, Miami’s in trouble. Narrative says “flat spot” after the Chiefs—my gut says statement win.
Steelers (+3) at Chargers
- Pick: Steelers +3
LA’s OL is gutted. When Pittsburgh’s front hunts, games flip fast—silent count in their own building, turnover or two, and suddenly it’s a Steelers script. I’ll take the points.
Ravens at Vikings (First Half)
- Pick: Ravens 1H -2.5
This is a system play I love: Lamar as a first-half favorite has been money. Extra rest, offense and defense healthy, Flores’ blitzes versus the league’s best QB against pressure. Ravens tend to jump teams early—ride the 1H.
Browns at Jets (+2)
- Pick: Jets as a home dog
Ugly? Yes. Also value. Nasty weather, plodding game, and Cleveland’s defense routinely travels worse than it plays on the Lake. Home dog + low total profile.
Jaguars at Texans (+1)
- Pick: Texans as a dog (and teaser leg over 7)
Houston’s defense can win this outright, and Jacksonville’s pass-catchers are banged up. If you’re a teaser person, this is a classic push through 3 and 7 spot.
Seahawks at Cardinals (+6.5)
- Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (wait for +7 if it pops)
Arizona’s defense is legit and structurally equipped to dampen Seattle’s play-action explosives. Brissett keeps them on schedule and out of disasters. They’ve been live every week—one-score game again.
Rams at 49ers (+4.5)
- Lean: Over; 49ers underdog angle
This series has been dog-driven for years. SF’s defense is thin up front; Rams’ offense plays fast and throws. Niners can still scheme explosives—especially with George Kittle healthy—so I lean to points and the ‘dog if you demanded a side.
Lions at Commanders (+8)
- Pick: Commanders +8
Mariota is in, but is Jayden Daniels really worth five or six points? This seems too high.
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