The Most Valuable Player award is the most prestigious individual accolade in professional football, marking the best player in the league over the past season. It can make a career, it can build a legacy… and as a result it’s also one of the most popular NFL betting futures.
Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook offers NFL MVP odds throughout the year, including the offseason, and the players favored to win it all can shift dramatically from week to week as the action unfolds on the field.
When Week 1 kicked off back in September the top of the odds board was packed with familiar names. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow who actually entered the season as the most-bet MVP candidate on Hard Rock Bet.
However, entering Week 11 of the 2025 season the odds look quite a bit different, with a trio of players that few expected pacing the field: Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Jonathan Taylor… and bettors holding tickets on them look to have an incredible sweat on their hands.
Drake Maye +300 to win MVP (3/1)
When Drake Maye was drafted by the New England Patriots with the third overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s doubtful even his biggest supporters would have placed him in the MVP conversation a little over half way through his second season, but here we are. The 23 year old signal caller has been nothing short of spectacular, throwing for 2,555 yards and 19 touchdowns with a sharp 71.7% completion percentage. He’s also added 283 yards on the ground and a pair of rushing touchdowns over the first ten games of the year, leading the Patriots to an 8-2 record – tied for the best in the AFC, and the NFL.
Following an impressive showing in Tampa on Sunday, Drake Maye has emerged as the co-favorite to win NFL MVP.
Drake Maye for MVP: Biggest Believers
Maye’s odds to win the award have been dropping steadily throughout the season as the Patriots keep stacking wins. However, this has created some extreme values for bettors who got in early. Longshot tickets on Maye that we’re watching include:
- $1,000 to win $101,000 (+10000)
- $275 to win $20,900 (+7500)
- $1,250 to win $16,250 (+1200)
Matthew Stafford +300 to win MVP (3/1)
Matthew Stafford is a 17-year NFL vet, Super Bowl Champion, and presumptive Hall of Famer… but while he’s accomplished just about everything you can do in the NFL, he hasn’t won the MVP award… yet. The Rams are currently 7-2 and have the second best Super Bowl odds on the board entering Week 11… and Stafford has been absolutely stuffing the stat sheet on a weekly basis. In just nine games he has thrown for 2,427 yards and 25 touchdowns versus just two interceptions — nobody else has more than 20 touchdown passes, many of whom have played an extra game.
This blistering pace has moved Stafford all the way up the odds board, landing him as the current co-favorite for NFL MVP.
Bettors who are watching Stafford closely
Long regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Matt Stafford entered the season with long odds to win MVP with recent seasons indicating he may lack a statistical ceiling. Well, he’s proving them all wrong. Here are a handful of MVP futures that will be particularly interested in his performance over the next few months.
- $520 to win $21,320 (+4000)
- $500 to win $20,500 (+4000)
- $250 to win $123,000 (a 4-Bet parlay with just Stafford for MVP at +4000 remaining)
Jonathan Taylor +525 to win MVP (5.25/1)
It’s exceedingly difficult for non-quarterbacks to win the MVP award, it takes a truly special season. The last player to do it was Adrian Peterson who ran for 2,097 yards – just 8 shy of the single season record – and 12 touchdowns, while also catching 40 balls for 217 yards during the 2012 season. Well, what we’re witnessing from JT is extraordinary.
Through ten games the Colts are 8-2, tied for the best record in the league, and Jonathan Taylor has been a huge reason why. So far Taylor has tallied 1,139 rushing yards and an incredible 15 rushing touchdowns, adding 30 catches, 260 yards, and two more scores. He’s scored three touchdowns in a game five times in ten games. Current 17-game pace would put him around 2,400 scrimmage yards and 30 touchdowns, exceeding even the best running back seasons.
250-1 to a favorite
Taylor was available as high as 250-1 (+25000) early in the season, with a handful of players taking their shot. Enticing futures tickets on the sensational back include:
- $20.06 to win $5,035.06 (+25000)
- $50 to win $10,050 (+20000)
- $500 to win $15,500 (+3000)
A long way to go…
With just ten games played so far in 2025 there’s a lot of football left to play. Patrick Mahomes was the favorite to win his third MVP entering Week 9, but the Chiefs fell flat against Buffalo, and then went on a bye. He’s currently fourth-favorite at +550.
Josh Allen was the odds-on favorite to win back-to-back MVPs entering Week 10 but was unimpressive on the road in Miami and as a result fell to fifth-favorite at +700.
The MVP market can change quickly… after all, we’re only a few weeks removed from Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield being offered at -150 vs the field at +105 to win MVP.
We can’t wait to see how it plays out.
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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