Formula 1, the pinnacle of motorsport, is just two weeks away from the start of its 2026 campaign. A new season brings new regulations — and renewed hope for every team on the grid.
With Bahrain preseason testing officially complete, the next time we’ll see the new-generation cars in competitive conditions will be March 6 at the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne.
And if the F1 betting markets at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook are any indication, one team has dramatically reshaped the championship conversation over the past month:
Ferrari.
The Ferrari Odds Surge
Over the last month, Ferrari’s title picture has transformed.
Lewis Hamilton — One Month of Odds Movement
The outlook for a record-setting eighth Drivers’ Championship for Lewis Hamilton has improved dramatically over the last month.
- January 21: +4000
- January 31: (after Barcelona testing): +1600
- February 20: (after Bahrain testing): +750
That’s not a shift. That’s a surge in price.
Hamilton opened the offseason as a true longshot at 40-1. But momentum began building immediately after testing began — punctuated by a visibly strong launch during a practice start simulation that caught attention across the paddock.
Rapid from Lewis Hamilton at the practice start 💨#F1 #F1Testing pic.twitter.com/5sPixZ2Z7i
— Formula 1 (@F1) February 19, 2026
As testing wrapped, the market continued to move.
From +4000 (40/1) to +750 (7.5-1) in one month is an aggressive pre-season shift.
Charles Leclerc — Contending for a Title?
- January 21: +2500
- January 31: +1400
- February 20: +550
And then came the exclamation point for Ferrari.
Leclerc laid down the fastest lap of the final session of Bahrain testing — a headline-grabbing moment.
Now sitting at +550, Leclerc has firmly moved into the top tier of championship favorites. Only George Russell (+200) and Max Verstappen (+300) have better odds to win the F1 Drivers’ Championship.
F1 Constructors’ Odds: Ferrari’s Big Move
The team market for the Constructors’ tells the same story — maybe even louder. A month ago Ferrari were 10-1 to win the Constructors’, far behind both Mercedes and McLaren.
- January 22: +1000
- January 31: +600
- February 20: +275
That’s a shift from 10-1 to 2.75-1. Ferrari has gone from an intriguing outsider to near co-favorite territory before a single race has been run. Mercedes is the current betting favorite at +120, with McLaren just ahead of Ferrari at +250.
A New F1 Era, Very Few Answers
This season ushers in a sweeping new rules package. New aerodynamic concepts. New interpretations. New balance considerations. Testing gives us data — but not clarity.
No one has shown their full hand.
In short: we know very little about how these cars will perform in a real race scenario.
And yet — the odds have moved dramatically based on what we have seen.
What Does It Actually Mean?
Testing times are notoriously deceptive, but the market movement is real.
Between Hamilton’s sharp early impressions, Leclerc’s pace on the final day, and what appears to be a stable, compliant package under the new ruleset, confidence is clearly building in the Scuderia.
The market believes Ferrari got this one right. Next we’ll find out if the track agrees.
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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