Today we recorded with my main man Stuckey. We dove into all the different angles for Seahawks-Patriots.
On paper, this might not have been the sexiest thing if you said it back in August, but the way it played out makes it fascinating. Vrabel versus Macdonald. Sam Darnold’s redemption story. Drake Maye, is he injured or not, and can the second-year quarterback become a Super Bowl champion?
We’ve got a lot going on, and we’re diving into every angle of this game from a gambling perspective.
Middlekauff’s Super Bowl Pick: Seahawks -4.5
I like Seattle -4.5 a lot. The one thing that gives me pause is the coaching for New England, which is elite.
I think sometimes people look at Vrabel as just a big massive alpha, but he’s a lot smarter than he gets credit for. There are six or seven things he’s done as a head coach dating back to the Titans that most coaches wouldn’t do, and they get his team little edges. He knows the rule book. He knows time management and clock management. Those little edges matter in these games.
If you like Seattle, I would ride Darnold to win MVP, maybe some interception props on defense, maybe even a pick six. That’s the way I’m going.
Stuckey: Target Low Scoring, Tight Game
Stuckey likes the total here. He thinks this will be a lower-scoring game. Super Bowls historically start off really slow. It used to be, you could play under 10 or 10.5 in the first quarter and it would hit for years. Now everyone is aware, and the first quarter total is around 8.5.
Both teams trust their defenses. Drake Maye has had fumble issues. Sam Darnold has had turnover issues in the past. Can see both teams coming out, feeling the game out, and not wanting to make a mistake.
This feels like a field-position battle. Both defensive staffs will have really good game plans. If one team has to play from way behind, that’s when turnovers come into play, but early on, expect things to be tight and conservative.
Middlekauff’s Prop Bet: Pick Six +650
Hard Rock Bet has 1+ Interception Return TD at +650.
Both quarterbacks have shown they can turn it over. Drake Maye has had a bunch of turnovers this postseason. Darnold led the league during the season. You’ve got two defenses throwing curveballs left and right, especially early in the game.
If someone gets down, they’re going to have to force it. To me, that one’s tasty. I’m definitely taking it.
Stuckey All In On Hunter Henry Props
One of Stuckey’s favorite avenues in this game is betting on Hunter Henry props.
He played over catches, over receiving yards, and longest catch over 17.5 yards. Seattle, by design, is one of the worst defenses in the league against tight ends. They funnel throws to the tight end because they want to take away explosive plays and force you to drive the field.
Maye is going to be under pressure. That safety valve matters. There are going to be design throws for Henry. Seattle doesn’t blitz a ton, so you don’t need as much protection help, and Henry can get involved down the seam.
Middlekauff’s Anytime TD Pick: Kayshon Boutte +325
The Patriots are going to have to take shots. That’s how they’ve operated offensively. Drake Maye is a really good deep-ball thrower, and it clearly feels like Drake likes Boutte and the Patriots like him.
At +325, those are pretty good odds for a guy they’re going to target down the field. Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but Boutte is the most likely receiver to hit a chunk play or a touchdown.
He could have one or two big plays that end up in the end zone. If you’re betting a Patriots receiver, that’s the profile.
Stuckey: Seattle To Run Wild
This one’s way in the weeds, but Stuckey also likes Seattle over 4.5 players to have a rush attempt.
You’re getting Kenneth Walker. The backup Holani will get a carry. Darnold will have at least one, whether it’s a scramble or a kneel. You’re probably getting a receiver on an end-around. This is when teams get creative in the Super Bowl.
AJ Barner will be involved in sneaks. You don’t not use him in 3rd & 1 or 4th & 1 situations. That all adds up.
Stuckey’s Anytime TD Pick: AJ Barner +230
Because of that usage, AJ Barner anytime touchdown is a sneaky bet.
If they’re at the 1, Barner is going to have a chance. He’s also one of Darnold’s favorite red-zone targets in the passing game. The Patriots linebackers struggle to cover in space, and that shows up around the goal line.
If you’re looking for someone who isn’t obvious, Barner fits.
Middlekauff & Stuckey’s Super Bowl LX Best Bets
- Seattle -4.5
- Under 44.5
- 1+ Interception Return TD +650
- Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions, Over 37.5 Yards, and Longest Catch Over 17.5
- Boutte anytime touchdown +325
- AJ Barner anytime touchdown +230
- Seattle over 4.5 players to record a rush attempt
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