Alright, let’s talk about the NCAA Tournament.
The Michigan Wolverines were the best team that I watched this weekend. I watched a lot of college hoops and really enjoyed it. High Point vs. Arkansas was my favorite game – incredible pace, up and down action, and elite offense from both teams. It basically came down to shot-making late.
Chase Johnston ended up getting two pretty decent looks – tough shots, but make-able for him – and he missed both. Then Acuff hits a pull-up three at the top of the key and adds a couple of big layups late. Arkansas escapes with the win, but that was easily the most entertaining game of the weekend.
As an Arizona fan, I’m a little nervous about that Sweet 16 matchup.
Duke Destined to Lose?
Looking at the No. 1 seeds, I was very unimpressed by Duke. Hard Rock Bet currently has them at +450 to win the National Championship. There’s been a lot of talk about Cam Boozer, as kind of a power forward version of Jokic: great touch, can shoot from three and midrange, handle the ball better than expected, and dominate physically while reading the floor well.
But what’s been disappointing is how he’s handled double teams and traffic. So far in the tournament, he’s really struggled reading defensive overloads in the post. Overall, Duke’s offense feels limited. It wasn’t all bad – Cayden Boozer saved them against Siena, and Dame Sarr made several huge defensive plays – but they feel like a team destined to lose at some point.
Gators’ Lack of Shooting Bites Them
Florida was the obvious weak link among the top seeds heading into the tournament. They’re a great defensive team, but they just can’t shoot, and that limits their offense. They ended up losing to Iowa.
The final sequence of that game was fascinating. Iowa had been dealing with heavy denial on Bennett Stirtz, so they ran him off a set of screens on the opposite elbow. Florida stayed in a lock-and-trail, which is risky, and the inbound pass hit Stirtz perfectly in stride. That gave him a full head of steam going downhill. He finds Alvaro Folgueiras in the right corner – beautiful Ray Allen-style footwork stepping behind the line while staying square – and he knocks down the three.
On Florida’s final possession, I didn’t love the execution. They went the length of the floor and over-penetrated. There just wasn’t enough time for that kind of drive. Once the angle wasn’t there, it needed to be a pull-up or an immediate kick. Tavion Banks made a great read defensively. He saw the drive developing, recognized there wasn’t time for a full kick-out, and rotated down to disrupt the drop-off pass. That sealed the game for Iowa.
Florida goes down, confirming they were the weakest No. 1 seed.
Arizona Finds a Way
As for Arizona, I was disappointed with how they handled Utah State’s pressure in the second half. Utah State went to a full-court zone press, and Arizona kept dribbling into trouble – especially into the corners, which are exactly the spots you want to avoid against that kind of defense.
Anthony Dell’Orso and Brayden Burries in particular struggled with decision-making during that stretch. Utah State thrives on forcing turnovers, and they used that to fuel a comeback. Arizona nearly blew an 18-point lead, with Utah State cutting it to four before Arizona regained control.
I’m not counting Arizona out – they’re +325 to win the title on Hard Rock Bet – and they’ve shown mental toughness all season. They’ve had stretches where the offense stalls and leads shrink, especially during Big 12 play. Part of that is personnel. They don’t have a true elite shot-creator. Burries can really shoot, but he’s not blowing by defenders. Jaden Bradley is quicker and can get downhill, but he’s not the same shooter. Their bigs are skilled, but not quite at the level of Michigan’s.
Still, they’re physically imposing and dominate the offensive glass. Krivas was huge late, especially on the boards and at the line. Bradley had big driving finishes, and Burries hit a massive step-back three. They found a way.
Michigan Remains the Team to Beat
That said, Michigan was the best team I watched this weekend. They’re currently +300, the favorite on Hard Rock Bet.
Their trio of bigs – Mara, Lendeborg and Johnson – gives them Arizona-like physicality, but with more offensive skill and versatility. That allows them to generate offense even when things slow down in the half court.
I still believe Arizona can win it, but objectively, Michigan looked like the best team this weekend.
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