We had a loaded slate of NBA action over the weekend, with several teams revealing exactly who they are at this stage of the season. Some contenders are separating themselves through consistency, others are navigating injuries and shooting swings, and a few teams continue to prove that strong habits can carry you through adversity.
Let’s get into it.
Five Big Takeaways from the Weekend
- The Jonathan Kuminga situation is not a Steve Kerr problem: Golden State has been one of the best teams in the league over the last month, posting a 120 offensive rating during an 11-4 stretch that began immediately after Kuminga left the rotation. The Warriors are scoring efficiently both with and without Steph Curry on the floor, validating the principles Kerr has emphasized for years: pace, quick decision-making, and constant ball and player movement. Kuminga’s struggles with playing in the flow of five-man offense would be an issue on most teams. Kerr’s system has consistently produced elite offenses despite talent disadvantages, and the recent surge reinforces why he remains committed to it.
- Houston’s recent struggles are a midseason shooting slump, not a warning sign: Houston snapped out of a miserable shooting stretch with back-to-back wins, showing positive regression after seven straight games below 0.95 points per jump shot. The defensive transition identity reappeared, Sengun looked sharper, and the long-term indicators remain elite. They are still top five in offense, top ten in defense, the best rebounding team in the league, and strong against top competition. This looks like a classic case of a hot-start team settling into the grind of the season rather than something structurally wrong.
- Phoenix’s offense works when dribble penetration fuels their shooting: Since Grayson Allen returned, Phoenix’s offensive efficiency has jumped noticeably. Allen’s ability to consistently get downhill has increased their catch-and-shoot volume, which matters for a team that already shoots well on those attempts. Allen is one of only two Suns averaging double-digit drives per game, and that penetration has unlocked more clean looks for the entire roster. Combined with their defensive personnel and rim protection, this explains why Phoenix continues to outperform expectations.
- Minnesota’s depth matters, but Anthony Edwards is the ceiling: Minnesota is dealing with injuries, but the emergence of rotation-level contributions from younger bigs has helped stabilize the floor. The bigger story remains Edwards’ ability to completely take over games with shotmaking that defenses simply cannot take away. He’s combining elite athleticism with refined shooting footwork, making him nearly impossible to stop once he heats up. The Timberwolves still have defensive lapses, but Edwards’ scoring runs continue to tilt games decisively.
- Oklahoma City’s title path now runs through workload management: The Thunder remain the league’s top team, but the Jalen Williams hamstring injury introduces new layers. His absence shifts responsibility toward AJ Mitchell, who has already proven capable as an efficient shot creator. At the same time, this injury further cements Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP case. Oklahoma City’s offense depends heavily on him, and he’s handled that burden at an elite level all season.
Jason Timpf’s NBA Power Rankings
As always, all title odds are provided by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
No. 10 – Cleveland Cavaliers (+2500)
Cleveland has quietly rounded back into form, winning multiple games in Philadelphia behind efficient offense and timely execution. Jaylon Tyson’s shooting, simple reads, and late-game composure have stood out, while Donovan Mitchell continues to carry a massive scoring load.
The most encouraging sign is the offense. A 120 offensive rating over the last two weeks mirrors last season’s regular-season dominance, helped by improved three-point shooting from the backcourt.
No. 9 – Los Angeles Lakers (+3000)
A split weekend encapsulated the Lakers experience. Injuries exposed depth issues against Portland, but strong performances against athletic teams like Atlanta and Toronto showed what works when the supporting cast hits shots.
Lineup construction remains tricky, especially in Luka-led units without LeBron, but defensive zone looks, transition play, and improved ball security from the stars offer reasons for optimism if health stabilizes.
No. 8 – Houston Rockets (+1300)
Houston regained momentum with improved shooting efficiency and defensive activity. Sengun looked closer to form, and their transition game punished Minnesota during a decisive fourth-quarter run.
The season-long indicators still paint them as a legitimate contender. Strong net ratings, elite rebounding, and consistent success against top teams separate this unit from more fragile resumes around the league.
No. 7 – Phoenix Suns (+50000)
Phoenix’s win in Madison Square Garden highlighted their defensive backbone and the offensive ripple effect of Grayson Allen’s penetration. His drives have increased the team’s catch-and-shoot volume, maximizing their shooting strengths.
With a top-tier defense and multiple players capable of making quick decisions off the catch, the Suns continue to outperform their on-paper expectations.
No. 6 – Boston Celtics (+2000)
Boston put on an offensive clinic in Atlanta, scoring 82 points in the first half behind elite off-the-dribble shotmaking. Jaylen Brown set the tone early, Sam Hauser delivered one of the best movement-shooting performances of the season, and the ball pressure Atlanta lacked was ruthlessly exploited.
A looming matchup with Detroit will test Boston’s ability to defend the glass and contain Cade Cunningham in crunch time.
No. 5 – Minnesota Timberwolves (+3000)
Injuries have forced Minnesota to lean deeper into the rotation, but the fundamentals remain intact. Young bigs have provided solid floor play, while Anthony Edwards continues to reach new scoring heights.
Defensive lapses still surface, but the combination of depth, physicality, and Edwards’ shotmaking keeps Minnesota firmly in contender territory.
No. 4 – San Antonio Spurs (+1200)
San Antonio’s revenge win over Minnesota showcased their offensive upside when the jump shots fall. When they eclipse one point per jump shot, they almost never lose.
Late-game execution improved by leaning into De’Aaron Fox as the primary initiator, allowing Victor Wembanyama to thrive as a finisher rather than forcing difficult initiations. That balance is a key step forward.
No. 3 – Denver Nuggets (+750)
Denver’s non-Jokic stretch has been a resounding success despite a rough loss to Charlotte. Jamal Murray has powered an efficient offense, while multiple role players have stepped up offensively.
Holding strong playoff position while missing the league’s best player speaks to the culture and internal confidence that defines this group.
No. 2 – Detroit Pistons (+1750)
Detroit continues to win games through physical dominance. Elite rim protection, relentless offensive rebounding, and strong point-of-attack defense keep them competitive every night.
Half-court offense remains a concern, but their ability to control non-variance areas of the game gives them a real postseason ceiling, especially with Cade Cunningham closing games effectively.
No. 1 – Oklahoma City Thunder (+110)
Oklahoma City remains the league’s standard despite a close loss in Miami. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to shoulder an enormous offensive workload, and with internal development elsewhere, he has solidified his case as the league’s MVP.
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