With just two NFL games on the board this weekend, it didn’t take long for us to narrow things down. When it came time to lock in our Hard Rock Best Bets, both of us landed on Sunday’s Patriots vs. Broncos matchup.
Andrew Erickson’s Hard Rock Best Bet
I’m betting against my own team here and taking the Denver Broncos +4.5 at home. This does not mean I think Denver wins the game outright. I still expect the Patriots to win, but I think it’s more likely they win by a field goal than by 5+ points.
This number moved too far following the Bo Nix injury, and I don’t think the updated spread properly reflects how this game is likely to play out. Denver’s defense is good enough to keep this close, especially at home, and I don’t think New England separates the way the line suggests.
If this is a one-score game late, which I think it will be, Denver covers the 4.5.
Ryan Wormeli’s Hard Rock Best Bet
My Hard Rock Best Bet is on the total in Patriots vs. Broncos. Under 42.5.
This was one of my two favorite bets of the entire show, and I had it written down before hearing Andrew’s pick. I like this number better than the spread, and it ties directly into everything we discussed earlier.
Even if Bo Nix were playing, I would still lean under. With a backup quarterback on one side, strong defenses on both sides, and both teams built to slow games down, I think this total is simply too high. I don’t expect offensive efficiency, and I think field goals will matter more than touchdowns in this matchup.
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